Turkey vs France Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Turkey host France at Kocaeli Stadium on Saturday morning New Zealand time, first up in League A Group 1 of the UEFA Nations League.

Zinedine Zidane takes charge of France for the first time here, two months after Didier Deschamps walked away from a World Cup that ended in a 6-4 bronze-medal defeat in Miami. Turkey haven’t played since June.

In this Turkey vs France preview I go through form, team news and where the market looks wrong. There’s a result-and-goals combination paying better than $2 that I like, and it’s the first thing I’d look at if you’re doing any football betting this weekend.

Turkey

I don’t think Turkey have fixed much since June.

Their World Cup was over inside eight days. Australia beat them 2-0 in Vancouver, then 10-man Paraguay won 1-0. Turkey saw off the United States 3-2 with a stoppage-time winner but were already eliminated, 24 years of waiting gone in a fortnight.

Somehow, Vincenzo Montella survived it. Their federation promised reform rather than a sacking, including a review of that striker-less shape used in North America.

Home is where their case lives. The last time they played in Izmit they beat Georgia 4-1 in a World Cup qualifier, and 35,000 will be on top of the France back four from the first whistle. Arda Guler does the creative heavy lifting now, which is a fair load for a 21-year-old.

Nine of the 29 named have two caps or fewer, which is a lot of green for a group containing Italy and Belgium. Their home win is around $6.00 wherever you look, and I checked the best punting app on my phone to see if anyone went bigger. Nobody had.

Team News: Calhanoglu and Yildiz are both out injured. Kokcu, Deniz Gul, Akgun and Sengezer are all nursing muscle problems and rated doubtful.

Predicted Lineup: Cakir; Celik, Demiral, Bardakci, Kadioglu; Yuksek, Ozcan; Baris Alper Yilmaz, Guler, Akturkoglu; Can Uzun.

France

France should win this, and I’d be a bit surprised if it’s tight.

Zidane’s first squad has 23 names and omits 11 players who were in North America, with five uncapped men coming in. It reads like an overhaul, though a good chunk of those absences were injury or retirement rather than a verdict on anyone.

What hasn’t changed is the front end. Kylian Mbappe left North America as the all-time leading World Cup scorer on 22 goals and with the Golden Boot, and Zidane has kept him as captain. Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembele, Bradley Barcola and Rayan Cherki came too.

Their defence is the question. France conceded twice across their first six matches in North America, then shipped eight in two, four of those before half-time against England. I’d discount the bronze final, given a group who had checked out emotionally four days earlier. Even so, a new coach and a reshuffled back four away from home isn’t a clean-sheet recipe.

Team News: Saliba is sidelined and hasn’t featured for Arsenal this season. Thuram and Mateta are also unavailable. Tchouameni was held back as a precaution after a muscle injury, and Zaire-Emery is a thigh doubt. Kante has retired from internationals.

Predicted Lineup: Maignan; Kounde, Konate, Upamecano, Truffert; Kone, Rabiot, Camavinga; Olise, Mbappe, Dembele.

• France have won four of the six meetings between these two sides.
• Turkey’s only win over France came in Konya in June 2019.
• Both teams scored in two of the last five meetings.
• France are third in the FIFA world rankings, Turkey 27th.

I’m taking France, and I’m taking goals with them.

Turkey at home are awkward and shouldn’t be taken lightly. They’ll be up for this in a way they weren’t in June. But a gap in quality this wide doesn’t close because a crowd turns up angry.

A draw is what worries me, if I’m honest. First competitive outing under a new coach, away from home, with a squad that only assembled on Monday. Zidane has had four days on a training pitch.

Even so, I can’t get past that forward line. Turkey have to defend Mbappe and Olise for 90 minutes with a centre-back pairing who’ve played a handful of games as a unit. A 3-1 to France feels about right to me.

France to Win and Over 2.5 Goals @ $2.15

France at $1.50 on their own is no use to anyone. Add the goals and the price gets interesting.

Their eight matches in North America produced 30 goals between both ends, close to four a game. Two of their last three competitive outings were quiet affairs, and the other gave us 10. Turkey have to come out at some point too, because dropping deep for 90 minutes against this attack invites a hiding.

At $2.15 I’m happy, and it’s worth comparing across a few live betting sites before kickoff if you’d rather see how the opening 20 minutes go.