Spain vs Croatia Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Spain play their first home game as world champions on Wednesday morning, hosting Croatia at Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan in Seville in round two of the Nations League.

Kick-off is 7:45am NZDT. Both sides won their openers on 26 September, with Spain fighting back to beat England 3-2 at Wembley and Croatia edging Czechia 2-1 in Prague.

In this Spain vs Croatia preview, I go through both camps and explain why I’m ditching my own goals call from last week for a Spain angle just under $2.

I’ve been through the prices on the main football betting sites, and there’s more to this one than a short-priced home win.

Spain

Spain were rattled at Wembley for a spell.

Lamine Yamal scored inside two minutes after pinching the ball off Marc Guehi, but England turned it round before half-time through Anthony Gordon and a Harry Kane header from Nico O’Reilly’s cross. For a side that let in one goal across eight World Cup matches, it was a strange 40 minutes.

Then Luis de la Fuente went to his bench. Alex Baena came on in the 55th minute, curled in the equaliser five minutes later and set up Mikel Oyarzabal’s winner in the 74th.

I read more into the bench than the two goals conceded. Kane smashed a penalty off the crossbar at 2-1, and Spain still found another gear with half a new front line.

It’s their first game in Spain since July’s final, and I expect a big Seville crowd to want a performance.

Team News: Joan Garcia was ruled out with a knee issue, and Porro withdrew injured before Wembley. Eric Garcia has also left the squad, with Le Normand called up.

Predicted Lineup: Simon; Pubill, Cubarsi, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Pedri, Olmo; Yamal, Oyarzabal, Baena.

Croatia

Croatia looked sharper than I expected in Prague.

Slaven Bilic is back in charge 14 years after his first stint finished. He took over from Zlatko Dalic, whose final game was a 2-1 round of 32 defeat to Portugal in Toronto, with Josko Gvardiol denied a late equaliser by VAR.

Luka Modric, who turned 41 this month, scored his 30th international goal two minutes into the second half. Adam Karabec levelled for Czechia, and Marco Pasalic headed the winner from an Ivan Perisic cross 13 minutes from time.

Their back line worries me. Czechia had a late goal chalked off for offside, and Luka Vuskovic is 19 and facing a very different test here.

Most legal betting sites have Croatia at $10 or bigger, and I can see why.

Team News: Juranovic and Erlic withdrew injured, with Majer, Pongracic and Jakic called in. Baturina missed the Czechia game with a virus.

Predicted Lineup: Livakovic; Stanisic, Vuskovic, Gvardiol, Perisic; Modric, Kovacic, P. Sucic; L. Sucic, Budimir, Marco Pasalic.

• Spain beat Croatia 3-0 in their last meeting at Euro 2024.
• Croatia haven’t beaten Spain since a 3-2 Nations League win in November 2018.
• Spain thrashed Croatia 6-0 in the Nations League in September 2018.
• Croatia’s only win on Spanish soil came in a 1994 friendly.
• Spain’s last home defeat came against Switzerland in September 2022.

Spain win this comfortably.

Last week I backed Spain to beat England with both teams scoring at $5.00, and the 3-2 at Wembley paid out. I’m flipping the second half of that call here.

England pressed high and forced turnovers, and Kane and Jude Bellingham were running at Spain’s centre-backs all night. Croatia are a slower side, and so much of their attack still goes through Modric.

That’s no knock on him. He was the best player on the park in Prague. But Rodri and Pedri won’t give him the time Czechia did, and Croatia will spend long spells without the ball.

I do have a nagging doubt. Spain conceded twice in four minutes at Wembley, and Perisic still has the delivery to punish a lapse. If Croatia nick one early, this gets a lot less comfortable for me.

I’m going 2-0 Spain, with Yamal on the scoresheet.

Spain to Win to Nil @ $1.73

Charles De Ketelaere’s header in the World Cup quarter-final was the only goal Unai Simon let in all tournament. Spain followed it with clean sheets against France and Argentina.

For me, Wembley was the outlier. England had the legs to press for 90 minutes, and I don’t think Croatia do, especially with Modric likely to come off in the second half.

Their last meeting at a major tournament finished 3-0 in Berlin as well, and Croatia barely laid a glove on Spain that day.

At $1.73, it’s a solid base for a multi, and a handy one to pair with any betting promotions you’ve got on the go this international window.