Belgium vs Turkey Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Turkey have conceded five goals in two Nations League games, and their next stop is Liege.

Belgium host Turkey at Stade Maurice Dufrasne at 7:45am NZT on Saturday in Group A1 of the Nations League. Belgium are second on three points after winning 2-0 in Rome and losing 1-0 to France in Brussels. Turkey are bottom without a point.

In this Belgium vs Turkey preview, I go through how both teams have looked after two rounds and who’s missing for each. I’ve also got an anytime goalscorer angle at over $3 for anyone looking to bet on football this weekend.

Belgium

I thought Belgium were decent against France, just a bit clunky.

They made only two changes from the Rome win and still went 72 minutes without a shot on target. Dodi Lukebakio finally tested Mike Maignan, and then Michael Olise came off the bench and scored a late winner for France.

Rome was a very different night. Belgium produced 2.39 xG in the first half alone against Italy, and Gianluigi Donnarumma was the only reason they went in just 1-0 up. Mika Godts scored after 20 minutes before Lukebakio came off the bench and smashed in the second from outside the box.

Kevin De Bruyne created five chances that night. He’s 35, though, and this is Belgium’s third game in eight days, so I don’t know how much he’s got left for 90 minutes here.

Team News: Courtois is absent by agreement and Moreira is suspended. Doku and Onana are out, and Trossard misses out. Penders and Lavia are doubts.

Predicted Lineup: Lammens; Castagne, Ngoy, Mechele, De Cuyper; Raskin, Tielemans; Lukebakio, De Bruyne, Godts; De Ketelaere.

Turkey

Turkey have lost four of their last five.

Their one win in that stretch was a 3-2 over the United States at the World Cup, after they’d already gone down to Australia and Paraguay in the group.

They weren’t bad against France in Kocaeli. Turkey matched France with 12 shots and started brightly, but Kylian Mbappe finished off an Olise pass after 54 minutes.

Bursa was a mess. Zeki Celik scuffed a clearance into Alessandro Bastoni’s path for Italy’s opener, and Turkey were 3-0 down at half-time. Three changes at the break produced a Baris Alper Yilmaz goal inside 90 seconds, which is worth remembering if you’re on the best live betting sites at half-time. Francesco Pio Esposito headed in Italy’s fourth on 50 minutes anyway.

Arda Guler is their most dangerous player, and Donnarumma had to save from him in Bursa. I’m just not convinced Turkey give him enough of the ball in the right areas.

Team News: Yildiz and Calhanoglu are injured, as is Muldur. Cakir missed the Italy loss through suspension and should return.

Predicted Lineup: Cakir; Celik, Demiral, Bardakci, Kadioglu; Ozcan, Kokcu; Aydin, Guler, Akturkoglu; Yilmaz.

• Belgium were unbeaten in 18 games before their World Cup quarter-final loss to Spain.
• Belgium’s win in Rome was their first competitive victory over Italy since 1972.
• Belgium and Turkey haven’t met since a 1-1 draw in June 2011.
• Turkey have scored once in two Nations League matches this season.
• Turkey failed to score from 62 shots in their World Cup losses to Australia and Paraguay.
• Belgium had 11 shots to France’s 17 before Olise’s winner.

I’m backing Belgium, but I’m not expecting a rout.

Italy found far too much room in Bursa, and Belgium have more pace out wide than Italy had that night. Godts and Lukebakio will both fancy running at Turkey’s full-backs, and if De Bruyne gets any time between the lines he’ll pick them out.

My worry is the France game. Belgium had plenty of the ball in Brussels and did very little with it, and a Turkey side defending deep for 60 minutes could frustrate them in the same way. I doubt Turkey will defend that deep for long. They need points, and chasing the game is what got them picked off by Italy.

For me, Turkey will score. Yilmaz has been their brightest forward across both games, and Guler only needs one clean look from the edge of the box.

I’m going 2-1 Belgium. Both teams to score at $1.80 appeals as a side bet, but I found a better price elsewhere.

Mika Godts Anytime Goalscorer @ $3.20

Godts has been Belgium’s most dangerous attacker in both games.

He scored in Rome and had a header pushed away by Donnarumma in the same half. Against France, he fired into the side netting on a night when Belgium barely troubled Maignan. He’s getting into scoring positions from the left every game, and Celik didn’t look comfortable defending on his side in Bursa.

Turkey have also conceded five times in two games. At $3.20, Godts is the player I’m backing on New Zealand betting sites this weekend.