Netherlands vs Serbia Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Serbia have lost four on the bounce, and the next side to face them is one that beat them only a week earlier.

The Netherlands welcome Serbia to Philips Stadion in Eindhoven on Monday morning NZT, with kick-off in this UEFA Nations League A2 fixture at 7:45am. In this Netherlands vs Serbia preview, I look at the team news and where I think the goals come from.

My best bet is a handicap market paying better than $2, one worth a look for anyone putting their betting promotions to use this week.

Netherlands

I thought the Dutch were comfortable in Belgrade, even if the 2-1 scoreline implies otherwise.

They had 67% of the ball on 27 September and fired off 25 shots, eight of them on target. Their xG came out at 2.75 against Serbia’s 1.41, and on another day Tijjani Reijnders buries the chance he blazed over from the centre of the box.

Mexx Meerdink wasn’t in the original squad. He got the call as a late replacement, then scored a penalty and a second-half winner in his first start for his country. I’d expect the AZ striker to lead the line again.

For me, Ruben van Bommel is the one to watch. He set up the stoppage-time equaliser against Germany and came on after 17 minutes in Belgrade, where his shot struck the post. His anytime scorer price on legal betting sites could be worth a nibble once lineups drop.

I’m less sure about their back line. Serbia still found 11 attempts, and a scrappy goal soon after the restart was all it took to get level.

Team News: Gakpo (ankle) and Brobbey (hamstring) are out for the rest of the window. De Jong is still missing with a knee injury, while Kluivert and Malen pulled out before the camp.

Predicted Lineup: Verbruggen; Dumfries, Van Hecke, Van Dijk, Van de Ven; Gravenberch, Veerman, Reijnders; Summerville, Meerdink, Van Bommel.

Serbia

Serbia are a mess right now, there’s no denying it.

Losing to Greece on 24 September stung most. Andrija Zivkovic scored in the fourth minute, then Greece struck twice after the break with the winner arriving in the 94th minute.

But I’d pay attention to the change at half-time in Belgrade. Dusan Tadic and Luka Jovic came off the bench together, and Jovic scored soon after. They looked far livelier than the one-striker setup that started. Jovic even headed a late Tadic corner just wide of the far post.

If both start in Eindhoven, I think Serbia score.

Their left side worries me more. Aleksa Terzic gave away the penalty that opened the scoring in Belgrade by bundling over Crysencio Summerville, and I’d expect the Dutch to go after that flank again.

Team News: Vlahovic (calf) and Ivanovic are out. Milenkovic is also unavailable.

Predicted Lineup: V Milinkovic-Savic; Nedeljkovic, Babic, Pavlovic, Terzic; Gudelj, Lukic; Zivkovic, Tadic, S Milinkovic-Savic; Jovic.

• Serbia haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last 11 matches.
• Serbia are 40th in the FIFA rankings.
• The Netherlands conceded in all four of their World Cup matches.
• Meerdink has two goals from his first two caps.
• The two nations last met at the 2006 World Cup, when the Netherlands beat Serbia and Montenegro 1-0.

I’m backing the Netherlands, and I think it’s more comfortable this time.

Serbia went into the window without their first-choice strikers and haven’t found an answer. They were bottom of the group without a point after two games, and a trip to Eindhoven isn’t where I’d expect them to turn it around.

One thing bugs me. The Dutch play Greece in Thessaloniki three days earlier, and I honestly don’t know how much Xavi Hernandez rotates for this one. A heavy-legged midfield might not press as hard, and that’s where Serbia got their joy in Belgrade.

It’s also worth remembering their only home game under Xavi so far was the 1-1 against Germany in Amsterdam. I don’t read much into that, but it’s not a big sample.

I can see Serbia nicking a goal. They’ve scored in both group games and Tadic gives them a bit of craft around the box, so BTTS at around $2.05 isn’t silly. But I’d rather back the Dutch margin than goals at both ends.

I’m going 3-1 to the Netherlands.

Netherlands -1.5 Handicap @ $2.25

Serbia have conceded two or more in each of their last four games, including a 5-1 loss to Mexico and a 3-0 loss to Cape Verde.

I’m not worried about Dutch control. Finishing was their problem in Belgrade, and with home support and an in-form striker, I think a similar amount of pressure turns into a two-goal win.

At $2.25, it’s a price I’m happy to back on sports betting apps in New Zealand.