France vs Italy Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

France and Italy meet at the Stade de France at 7:45am NZT on Saturday in League A of the UEFA Nations League.

Zinedine Zidane has two 1-0 wins from two games in charge, and France top Group 1 with six points. Italy are three points back after an odd week under Roberto Mancini. They lost 2-0 at home to Belgium, then won 4-1 in Bursa three days later.

I’ve looked back at the recent meetings for this France vs Italy preview, and one pattern jumps out. My bet rides on it, and it pays a touch over $3.

For anyone hunting football tips with more juice than the match result, read on.

France

France haven’t been pretty.

Kylian Mbappe scored the winner in Kocaeli, and Michael Olise spared them a goalless night in Brussels. For me, Olise’s goal was the moment of the window. He ran onto a Rayan Cherki pass near halfway before curling it into the bottom corner.

But I’m not sure where their goals come from on Saturday. Ousmane Dembele led the line in Turkiye and Esteban Lepaul started in Brussels, and neither found the net. Desire Doue struck the bar against Belgium and was their most dangerous player for long spells.

Cherki is the one who can unlock a deep Italian block. He started in Kocaeli and set up the winner off the bench in Brussels.

At the back, it’s been tidy. Belgium didn’t test Mike Maignan until the 73rd minute.

France looked a sharper side once Zidane went to his bench in Brussels, which is handy to know for anyone following this one on live betting sites.

Team News: Mbappe and Konate are out with knee injuries. Zaire-Emery and Risser withdrew from the squad before the window. Yoro gets a first senior call-up.

Predicted Lineup: Maignan; Kounde, Upamecano, Lacroix, Truffert; Kone, Rabiot, Cherki; Olise, Dembele, Doue.

Italy

I don’t know which Italy turns up for this match.

In Rome they lost 2-0 to Belgium and heard boos at half-time, with the opener coming straight from a misplaced pass in midfield. Mancini made eight changes for Bursa, and Italy were 3-0 up inside 27 minutes.

Alessandro Bastoni and Davide Frattesi got the first two. Debutant Michael Kayode scored the third after a slick one-touch move, and Francesco Pio Esposito nodded in a fourth after Sandro Tonali struck the post.

Pio Esposito is the one I’d worry about if I were French. He’s been in the thick of it in both games, and he forced Senne Lammens into a big save in Rome even on a bad night.

Their defence still has holes. Turkiye scored early in the second half when Oguz Aydin pulled Gianluigi Donnarumma towards the far post and squared for Baris Alper Yilmaz to finish into an empty net.

Team News: Raspadori is out after leaving the camp injured and will miss this game and the Turkiye return fixture. Dimarco, Palestra, Cristante and Zaniolo were all missing injured for this window.

Predicted Lineup: Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Scalvini, Bastoni, Calafiori; Barella, Tonali, Frattesi; Cambiaghi, Pio Esposito, Kean.

• France have won four of the last five meetings with Italy.
• Both teams scored in each of those five games.
• Bursa was Italy’s first three-goal opening half-hour in a competitive game since September 2021.
• Italy won 3-1 on their last visit to Paris in September 2024.
• France haven’t conceded in two games under Zidane.

France win, but it’ll be ugly.

I’ve gone back and forth on this one. France are the better side and they’re at home, but 1-0 wins over a Turkiye side that finished with 10 men and a Belgium team that barely tested them haven’t convinced me about their attack.

And Italy will get chances. Moise Kean and Pio Esposito give them a real outlet up top, and France have used a different back four in each game so far.

Head-to-head is where I’ve settled. Four of the last five meetings ended 3-1, and the other finished 2-1.

I’m going France 2-1. It’s a risk trusting this attack without its captain, but I think Olise and Doue have enough about them, and I can’t see Italy shutting France out in Paris. If Italy score first, I wouldn’t be shocked by a stalemate.

France to Win and Both Teams to Score @ $3.40

France didn’t score freely in either game, but they created plenty in Brussels, with Doue striking the bar and Lucas Da Cunha the post.

Italy scored four in Bursa. Even during the Rome defeat, Lammens had to deny Kean and Pio Esposito from close range. I’d rather take France and BTTS than France outright at a short price.

I’m taking $3.40 on this one with the best online betting sites in New Zealand.