Greece vs Germany Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Greece had never beaten Germany until 27 September.

Now they get the chance to do it twice in seven days. Greece host Germany at Toumba Stadium in Thessaloniki on Monday morning NZT in the Nations League, with kick-off at 7:45am. In this Greece vs Germany preview, I dig into a German squad that barely resembles the one Greece beat in Augsburg.

I’ve also got a two-leg combo at $2.50 further down, and it doesn’t involve backing Germany, so hang around if you’ve got free bets to use this week.

Greece

I didn’t see this coming from Greece.

They went into the Nations League without a win in five games. Then they won 2-1 in Belgrade and 1-0 in Augsburg, both as the away side.

Oddly, the Serbia game was the more convincing of the two. Greece had 26 shots to Serbia’s nine that night and needed a 94th-minute header from Anastasios Douvikas to get their reward.

Augsburg was another kettle of fish though. Greece spent long spells defending deep, and Konstantinos Tzolakis had to be excellent, including a diving save from a Joshua Kimmich free kick early in the second half. Dinos Mavropanos was a wall in front of him.

Christos Tzolis is the one I’d be watching in attack. He scored in Belgrade, then his cutback set up Dimitrios Kourbelis for the deflected 74th-minute winner in Augsburg.

Team News: Vagiannidis came off at half-time in Augsburg, so Saliakas could start. Kostoulas was an unused sub in Augsburg after needing stitches in a leg wound against Serbia. Greece host the Netherlands on 1 October first, so some rotation is possible.

Predicted Lineup: Tzolakis; Saliakas, Mavropanos, Retsos, Tsimikas; Karetsas, Kourbelis, Androutsos, Tzolis; Kostoulas, Pavlidis.

Germany

This German team will look nothing like the one that lost in Augsburg.

Jurgen Klopp split his 44-man call-up into two groups, and most of the first group has already gone home. Florian Wirtz and Jonathan Burkardt were brought forward early after two injuries in the first group, and both came off the bench in Augsburg. Nick Woltemade and the rest of the second group join them for Serbia in Munich on 1 October before travelling to Thessaloniki.

Their World Cup ended with a round-of-32 exit on penalties to Paraguay, and Klopp’s first two games in charge have produced one point. Germany had 75.5% of the ball in Augsburg and still couldn’t find a way past Tzolakis.

Wirtz is the one I’m most curious about. He only got the last 25 minutes in Augsburg and hasn’t been at his best for Liverpool, with one assist in six games this season, but he’s still the most gifted player in either squad. Burkardt has six goals in five games for Eintracht Frankfurt and could get the nod up front instead of Woltemade.

Germany are still priced as favourites across the best sports betting apps NZ punters use, and I get it on paper. I just don’t know how quickly a largely reshuffled group gels away from home.

Team News: Musiala and Havertz are out injured. Kimmich and Tah were part of the first squad only and have returned to their clubs.

Predicted Lineup: Atubolu; Baku, Thiaw, Schlotterbeck, Raum; Pavlovic, Bischof; Karl, Wirtz, El Mala; Woltemade.

• Greece lost seven and drew three of their first 10 meetings with Germany.
• Greece won both of their opening Nations League games away from home.
• Germany have gone four games without a win.
• Germany failed to score from 14 shots in Augsburg.
• Greece have conceded once in two Nations League games.

I’m not backing Germany at this price.

Klopp has plenty of talent to pick from, but this group will have had a handful of sessions together before walking into one of the loudest grounds in Greece.

Greece have also found a way to win games without much of the ball, which is a handy trick against a side that’ll want 70% possession again.

I’ll admit the 1 October results could change my view. If Greece get battered by the Netherlands or Germany put four past Serbia, I’d be looking at this one differently.

But my gut says this is tight and low on goals. Greece haven’t needed many chances to win either game, and I don’t see this German group carving them open often. I’m going 1-1, with a Greece win not far off.

Greece Double Chance and Under 2.5 Goals @ $2.50

Germany’s two Nations League games have produced three goals combined.

Greece had one shot on target in Augsburg and still won, so I don’t expect them to fling the doors open at home either. A 1-1 would do nicely, and so would another 1-0 Greece win.

I’ll lose this if Germany finally click, and with Wirtz in the side that’s a real possibility.

I’m happy taking $2.50 on this at legal betting sites in New Zealand.