Brentford vs Chelsea Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Brentford and Chelsea lock horns at the Gtech Community Stadium on Saturday morning New Zealand time in a Premier League west London derby that should produce goals.

Chelsea have scored 10 across four league games but conceded nine. Brentford are unbeaten but have drawn three of four. In this Brentford vs Chelsea preview, I look at what’s going wrong at the back for both sides and why that’s good news for the goals markets.

I’ve got a price worth chasing in the overs at $2.80 for anyone hunting football betting tips this week.

Brentford

Brentford are unbeaten through four Premier League games and you’d think Keith Andrews would be thrilled. I’m not sure he is. Three of those four have ended level, and only their thumping of Tottenham on the opening day - a 3-0 win where Andrews’ side were in control from the first whistle - has delivered the full three points.

Kevin Schade has been excellent. He opened the scoring at Bournemouth last Saturday before Brentford conceded twice, then rescued a point with his second goal after a howler from Petrovic. Schade is in form and I expect him to cause problems again in this match.

Losing Nathan Collins to a calf strain is a blow. He’s been their best defender and his absence was felt immediately at Bournemouth, where they looked shakier at the back without him marshalling the line.

Team News: Collins and Dasilva are out. Van den Berg and Milambo are sidelined. Jensen is a doubt.

Predicted Lineup: Kelleher; Hickey, Ajer, Schuster, Lewis-Potter; Sangare, Janelt; Schade, Yarmolyuk, Ouattara; Thiago.

Chelsea

I don’t know what to expect from Chelsea week to week. Xabi Alonso’s side have been wildly entertaining and wildly inconsistent - sometimes within the same game. They went 3-0 up against Brighton inside 32 minutes and almost blew it, needing a Palmer screamer to seal a 4-3 win.

Joao Pedro has scored in three of four league games. Three goals already, and he’s been the most reliable attacking outlet Chelsea have. Palmer’s had his moments too, but Chelsea’s problems aren’t in attack.

It’s the other end. We’re talking 12 goals conceded in six competitive matches under Alonso. Against Hull last Saturday, Morgan Rogers opened the scoring inside seven minutes before Mohamed Belloumi scored twice to turn the game on its head by half-time. Pedro bailed them out with an equaliser, but Chelsea were fortunate not to lose at home to a promoted side.

Caicedo’s absence through a calf issue has been significant. Without him screening in front of their defence, Chelsea have looked exposed in transition.

Team News: Caicedo, Henderson and Emegha are doubts. Palestra and Satpaev are out.

Predicted Lineup: Martinez; Fofana, Lacroix, Colwill; Neto, Gusto, Lavia, Hato; Palmer, Rogers; Pedro.

• Chelsea have conceded in all four Premier League games this season.
• Brentford haven’t lost at the Gtech Community Stadium since April.
• Both teams scored in the last two Premier League meetings at this ground.
• Chelsea have had 4+ goals in three of their four league games this season.
• Brentford have scored in every competitive match this campaign.

I’m tipping Chelsea to win, but I wouldn’t put a cent on them keeping a clean sheet. 

Alonso has enough firepower - Palmer and Pedro alone have seven goals between them - to outscore most sides, and Brentford without Collins at the back are vulnerable.

What concerns me is Chelsea’s inability to defend a lead. They let Brighton back in from 3-0 up. Hull from 1-0 up. It’s a pattern, and Brentford at home with Schade in this sort of form will punish any sloppiness.

I can see Chelsea getting two or three and still having to sweat. A 3-2 or 2-1 feels about right to me. If you’re looking at this with free bets in hand, the goals markets are where I’d be focused.

Over 3.5 Goals @ $2.80

Chelsea’s games have been chaos this season. Fulham away was 3-2. Brighton at home was 4-3. Hull was 2-2 after Chelsea threw away an early lead. Three of their four league matches have produced four or more goals, and that’s without Caicedo available to shore things up defensively.

Brentford’s Bournemouth draw had four goals. The opening-day demolition of Spurs had three. With Collins absent and Chelsea’s backline looking this fragile, I’m expecting an open, stretched game where both sides create chances and neither can comfortably shut up shop.

At $2.80, it’s a price I’m comfortable backing on the best live sports betting sites available in New Zealand.