Sunderland vs Chelsea Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Sunderland face Chelsea in the Premier League at the Stadium of Light on Monday morning NZT, with kickoff at 3am.

On paper, it’s a mismatch. Sunderland are bottom with five points from nine games, and Chelsea are fourth, 11 points better off.

My best bet in this Sunderland vs Chelsea preview is priced under $1.50, and it’s the safest way I could find to back the away side. Prices were still moving when I checked, so compare a few of the best new betting sites before you lock it in.

Sunderland

Sunderland have scored once in their last four Premier League games, and that goal came from the penalty spot.

Enzo Le Fee converted it in the 67th minute of their 3-1 defeat at Coventry on 31 October. Coventry were already 3-0 up, and Omar Alderete’s second yellow in stoppage time left Sunderland with 10 men at the end.

Before that, their last league goal came in the 5-3 defeat at Manchester City on 20 September. Three straight league games without a goal is a big worry for a side that needs points soon.

Their cup form looks nothing like their league form. They’re unbeaten in their first three Europa League games, and a rotated side knocked Brentford out of the Carabao Cup with a 3-2 win on 28 October.

I just can’t trust them at home in the league.

They’ve played four games at the Stadium of Light and scored one goal, in a 1-0 win over Fulham back in August. Granit Xhaka sets their tempo from deep, but he’ll need to find Brian Brobbey early before Chelsea’s midfield takes over.

Team News: Alderete is suspended and Ballard is out. Diarra and Mundle are also missing, while Mukiele and Angulo are doubts.

Predicted Lineup: Roefs; Hume, Danso, O’Nien, Reinildo; Xhaka, Sadiki; Rigg, Le Fee, Talbi; Brobbey

Chelsea

Morgan Rogers opened the scoring against Manchester United on 31 October, running through their defence before finishing.

Cole Palmer added a penalty for his 50th Premier League goal after Lisandro Martinez was sent off, and Estevao had two more goals ruled out for offside.

I’m less sure about them on the road. They’ve won two and lost two of their four league away games, including a 3-0 defeat at Brentford in September that I still can’t explain.

Their defence has tightened up lately, with clean sheets against Everton and Manchester United in their last three league games. Mike Penders also came up with some useful saves before half-time in the second one.

Anyone after football betting tips on this one should know Chelsea have had a full week off before this trip, while Sunderland played on Thursday night.

Team News: Joao Pedro, James and Lacroix are out, as is Gittens. Emiliano Martinez and Caicedo are doubts, along with Hato, Henderson and Anselmino.

Predicted Lineup: Penders; Acheampong, Fofana, Colwill; Neto, Caicedo, Lavia, Chavarria; Estevao, Palmer; Rogers

• Sunderland have lost six of their nine league games.
• Sunderland have conceded 17 goals in the league this season.
• Chelsea have scored 19 goals in the league this season.
• Chelsea have won three of their last four league games.
• Sunderland have one point from five away league games.

Sunderland beat Chelsea home and away last season, and I’ve thought about that a lot this week.

However, that was a far more settled Sunderland side and this group is struggling at both ends right now.

I’m tipping Chelsea here. Rogers and Palmer have found a rhythm together, and a back four missing its first-choice centre-backs looks a poor match for them. All three of Chelsea’s league defeats have come against teams in the top half of the table, and Sunderland are nowhere near that right now.

I can see a 2-0 away win. Under 2.5 goals tempted me at $2.00, but Estevao could turn this into a three-goal game on his own if he gets loose.

My real fear is a scrappy 0-0 or 1-1, where Sunderland’s Thursday legs hold up better than I expect and the crowd drags them through. That’s why I’ve gone for the safer version of a Chelsea bet below.

Chelsea Draw No Bet @ $1.48

A draw is the result that would hurt a straight Chelsea bet most here, and Draw No Bet returns your stake if it happens.

Sunderland drew 0-0 with Leeds and 1-1 at Brentford earlier this season, and they look far happier in a tight game than an open one.

Chelsea also have the fresher legs.

Sunderland’s Europa League game came three days before this one, and they’ve been juggling three competitions with a stretched squad all season.

It’s a short price, but I’d happily use any betting promotions on Chelsea Draw No Bet at $1.48.