Brighton vs Arsenal Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Brighton and Arsenal meet at the Amex Stadium on Sunday morning New Zealand time, with the reigning champions chasing a fifth consecutive Premier League win.

Arsenal have been ruthless. Four from four, eight goals scored, one conceded. Brighton have been chaotic - 13 goals scored in four league games but five conceded, including a wild 4-3 loss at Chelsea. In this Brighton vs Arsenal preview, I look at whether Brighton can score against a defence that’s barely conceded, and what their injury list does to their chances.

I’ve also got a BTTS angle at $3.40 for anyone looking to bet on football this weekend.

Brighton

Thirteen goals in four league games and I’m still not sure what to think of Brighton. They smashed Aston Villa 4-0 at home on the opening day, lost a seven-goal thriller at Chelsea, drew 1-1 with Leeds, and then put five past Coventry away from home. Charalampos Kostoulas opened the scoring against Coventry before Malick Yalcouye, Pascal Gross, Lewis Dunk and Yasin Ayari all followed up in the second half.

Gross has been central to everything good about their season, and Kostoulas has come from nowhere to cause problems. I like the depth of their goalscoring - five different scorers at Coventry alone.

Their injury list is brutal. Kaoru Mitoma, Evan Ferguson, Yankuba Minteh and Jack Hinshelwood are all out, along with Mats Wieffer, Zadok Yohanna, Stefanos Tzimas and Michael Svoboda. Georginio Rutter is a doubt. That’s close to half a first-choice XI missing, and for me it’s hard to see how Hurzeler patches over that against a squad of Arsenal’s quality.

Team News: Mitoma, Ferguson, Minteh, Hinshelwood, Wieffer, Yohanna, Tzimas and Svoboda are all out. Rutter and Azeez are doubts.

Predicted Lineup: Verbruggen; Costinha, Dunk, Igor, De Cuyper; Gross, Ayari, Yalcouye; Kostoulas, Adingra, Gruda.

Arsenal

Four wins, one goal conceded, top of the table alongside Manchester City. There’s no denying things are humming along nicely for the defending champs.

Arsenal started with a 3-0 stroll against Coventry, won 1-0 at Aston Villa, beat Chelsea 2-1 at home and then ground out a 2-0 win at Sunderland on Saturday. That Sunderland result was the one that impressed me most. David Raya saved a penalty at 0-0, Bruno Guimaraes came off the bench and thumped his first Arsenal goal in off the underside of the bar from 23 yards, and Bukayo Saka sealed it with a stoppage-time penalty.

Saka already has three league goals and Odegaard has two. Kai Havertz is fit and dangerous, and Christos Tzolis has nailed down the left-wing spot - he was starting there before Gabriel Martinelli’s departure to Al Hilal in September, and he’s only looked more comfortable since. Guimaraes gives Arteta another option in midfield alongside Declan Rice and Martin Zubimendi. 

For me, this is the deepest Arsenal squad I can remember.

Team News: Saliba has yet to feature this season with a long-term back issue. Mosquera and Timber are also listed as unavailable. Guimaraes could start or feature off the bench again.

Predicted Lineup: Raya; White, Konsa, Gabriel, Calafiori; Zubimendi, Rice; Saka, Odegaard, Tzolis; Havertz.

• Arsenal haven’t lost to Brighton in their last seven meetings, winning five and drawing two.
• Brighton have scored in all four of their Premier League games this season.
• Arsenal have conceded just one goal across four league matches.
• Brighton have eight confirmed absentees including Mitoma, Ferguson and Wieffer.
• Arsenal won the corresponding fixture 1-0 last season.

I see Arsenal winning this match. It feels inevitable, I know, and I don’t love backing champions at short prices away from home - but I can’t find a convincing reason to go against them here.

Brighton will cause moments. They’ve scored in every league game and Gross can hurt anyone on his day. But their injury list is so long that I don’t think they have the bodies to compete with Rice and Zubimendi for 90 minutes. Arsenal have managed four wins without Saliba this season and Konsa looked comfortable at Sunderland. I don’t see that changing here.

A 2-1 Arsenal win is where I’d put my money, and if you’ve got free bets to use this weekend, this feels like a fixture where goals are likely from both ends.

Arsenal Win and Both Teams to Score @ $3.40

Brighton have found the net in every league outing this season. Arsenal have conceded in only one of four, but that one was at home to Chelsea - and Brighton’s attack is comparable in terms of individual quality.

I can see Brighton grabbing one. Gross from set pieces is a constant threat, and Kostoulas has been full of confidence. Arsenal have coped without Saliba all season but Konsa and Gabriel haven’t been tested by an attack this relentless yet. But Arsenal’s firepower is a level above what Brighton have faced so far, and with Saka, Odegaard and Havertz all clicking, I’d expect them to score at least twice.

At $3.40, it’s a price I’m backing on the NZ betting sites available.