Chelsea vs Hull City Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Chelsea welcome Hull City to Stamford Bridge on Sunday morning New Zealand time, with the hosts looking to bounce back from their first defeat under Xabi Alonso.

Hull haven’t conceded a single Premier League goal yet. Three games, three clean sheets. It’s a record that deserves more attention than it’s getting, and I’m not sure Chelsea’s patchwork defence is equipped to blow it apart.

In this Chelsea vs Hull City preview, I’ve got a goals-market angle at $2.75 for those checking football tips this week.

Chelsea

Eight scored, seven conceded in three Premier League games. That’s the Alonso era summed up so far - devastating going forward, far too open at the back.

Cole Palmer and Joao Pedro have two league goals each already. Morgan Rogers has scored or assisted in all three fixtures since arriving from Aston Villa and I think he’s been the signing of the summer. Their front three looked unstoppable at times against Fulham and Brighton.

I’m not convinced their defensive structure is right yet. 

Chelsea haven’t recorded a Premier League clean sheet in 18 games now, a streak stretching back to last season. Against Brighton they won 4-3 despite being battered in possession. And at Arsenal last weekend, Rogers put them ahead after 77 seconds before Kai Havertz and Martin Odegaard turned the game around by the 50th minute.

Emiliano Martinez replacing Robert Sanchez in goal was an upgrade. I just don’t trust what’s in front of him yet.

Team News: Caicedo missed the first two games with a pre-existing knock, came on as a substitute against Brighton, lasted 14 minutes before being taken off again, and missed the Arsenal trip. Henderson is out with a broken forearm from the World Cup. Palestra and Emegha haven’t featured yet.

Predicted Lineup: Martinez; Fofana, Lacroix, Colwill; Neto, Lavia, Caicedo, Hato; Palmer, Rogers; Pedro.

Hull City

I didn’t expect Hull’s start to the season.

Three games unbeaten, seven points. They’re third in the table, above Chelsea. Hull’s start to life back in the top flight has been extraordinary for a side who scraped promotion in sixth through the playoffs.

Semi Ajayi and Nobel Mendy scored from set pieces to beat Manchester United 2-0 on the opening day. Millar’s 82nd-minute counter sealed a 1-0 win at Coventry. A goalless result against Aston Villa on Saturday completed the set - zero goals conceded in 270 minutes of Premier League football.

I do wonder how long it can last. Stamford Bridge is a significant step up from anything Hull have faced, and their attack has been limited - three goals in three games, two of those from centre-backs on set pieces. Oli McBurnie scored 17 in the Championship last season but hasn’t found the net yet.

Team News: Hull’s injury list is extensive. Butland is recovering from elbow surgery. Matazo is out long-term with a cruciate injury. Gelhardt, Gyabi and Hughes are all sidelined. Omur is a doubt.

Predicted Lineup: Tzolakis; Coyle, Ajayi, Egan, Drameh; Gourna-Douath, Slater; Belloumi, Sakamoto, Millar; McBurnie.

• Chelsea have scored in every Premier League game this season, netting eight goals in three matches.
• Hull haven’t conceded a league goal in 270 minutes of football this season.
• Chelsea’s last Premier League clean sheet came 18 games ago.
• Chelsea have won 12 of 14 meetings against Hull across all competitions since 2007.
• Chelsea beat Hull 4-0 in the FA Cup last February at the MKM Stadium.

I’m backing Chelsea, but I don’t think this is the blowout the $1.25 price suggests.

Hull are well-drilled and their defence has been outstanding. They won’t come to Stamford Bridge looking to play open football, and Chelsea have done their damage this season against sides willing to open up. Brighton had 74% possession and still lost 4-3. Hull won’t give Chelsea that much space.

Palmer is too good to be contained for 90 minutes, and Pedro will find a gap eventually. I think Chelsea get it done. But a tight 2-0 or even 1-0 feels more likely than anything comfortable.

If you’re following the Premier League through best betting apps this weekend, the goals market here looks more interesting than the result.

Under 2.5 Goals @ $2.75

Everyone expects Chelsea to cruise. I’m not buying it at that price.

Hull have conceded zero Premier League goals. Zero. Jakirovic’s defence has been airtight against three different opponents with three different tactical approaches. Chelsea’s attack is more potent than anything they’ve faced, I accept that. But Hull will defend deep and frustrate Chelsea by cutting off space in the final third.

Chelsea’s own defensive record actually works in favour of the under here, too. Alonso won’t throw everyone forward if he’s worried about the counter.

At $2.75, under 2.5 goals is the contrarian play on the new betting sites available in New Zealand.