FA Cup: Chelsea vs Leeds United - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Chelsea and Leeds United face off at Wembley on Monday morning New Zealand time in the FA Cup semi-final.

The form guide has flipped completely since the draw was made three weeks ago. Chelsea haven’t scored in five straight Premier League games - their worst run since 1912 - and sacked Liam Rosenior on Wednesday. Leeds are unbeaten in five and all but safe from relegation.

In this Chelsea vs Leeds United preview, I look at both sides and what could swing this one. I’ve got a bet at around $4.50 on new betting sites that I think is worth a shot at the end.

Chelsea

Things are bad. Real bad. We’re talking five consecutive league games without a goal bad. A manager sacked mid-week, and caretaker Calum McFarlane stepping up from the under-21s.

Estevao’s grade four hamstring injury ends his club season. Cole Palmer missed the 3-0 loss at Brighton with hamstring tightness and is unlikely to be risked. Joao Pedro is expected back after missing the last two with a thigh problem, but his fitness will be a late call.

The most recent Brighton defeat is a case in point. Chelsea didn’t register a single shot on target across 90 minutes - their first attempt of any kind came in the 41st minute. 

Enzo Fernandez is available, and their FA Cup run has been clinical with a 7-0 demolition of Port Vale in the quarter-finals. But league form and cup form feel like two different teams right now.

Team News: Estevao, Palmer, Bynoe-Gittens, Colwill, James, and Jorgensen are out. Pedro is expected to be fit but is a late call.

Predicted Lineup: Sanchez; Gusto, Fofana, Chalobah, Cucurella; Caicedo, Fernandez; Garnacho, Neto, Hato; Delap.

Leeds United

Leeds haven’t been in a semi-final since 1987. They’re coming into it after a brilliant month - wins at Old Trafford and at home to Wolves, then a spirited 2-2 draw at Bournemouth where Sean Longstaff volleyed home in the 97th minute.

Noah Okafor has five goals in his last six appearances, including a brace at Old Trafford that gave Leeds their first league win there since 1981. Anton Stach is the key absence - his ankle ligament injury from the quarter-final will probably rule him out.

Joe Rodon returned against Wolves and came through fine.

Leeds are unbeaten in both league meetings with Chelsea this season. Won 3-1 at Elland Road in December, drew 2-2 at Stamford Bridge in February.

Team News: Stach is a major doubt. James is fit but unlikely to start. Rodon should be available.

Predicted Lineup: Darlow; Dungba, Rodon, Bijol, Justin; Gruev, Tanaka; Gnonto, Aaronson, Longstaff; Okafor.

• Over 2.5 goals has come in across all three meetings between these sides this season.
• Chelsea haven’t scored in their last five Premier League outings.
• Leeds are unbeaten in five across all competitions, winning two of those.
• Noah Okafor has five goals in his last six appearances for Leeds.
• Chelsea have progressed from all six previous FA Cup ties against Leeds, the most recent in February 2024.

I’m going against the odds here, and I feel pretty good about it.

Chelsea might have a better squad on paper, but that squad is decimated right now. Palmer is doubtful, Estevao is done for the season, and the players who are available looked completely shot at Brighton. Zero shots on target in a 3-0 loss.

McFarlane’s only previous stint was a brief caretaker spell in January, and he’s had less than four days to prepare for a semi-final.

Leeds won’t fear this side: they took four points off Chelsea in the league, and won at Old Trafford this month. Plus Okafor is playing with the confidence of a striker who can’t miss right now. Farke’s team have that cup-run mentality - every round has been a bonus, and it’s exactly that lack of pressure could be the difference at Wembley.

On football betting sites you’ll find Chelsea priced around $1.70, but I don’t think that reflects how broken they look. I’m tipping a draw in 90 minutes, with Leeds potentially advancing in extra time or on penalties.

Leeds United to Win (90 Minutes) @ $4.50

Chelsea haven’t scored in five league games. Their best attackers are injured or doubtful. Their manager was sacked 48 hours ago, and Leeds have already beaten them once and drawn with them once this season.

At $4.50, I’m getting paid properly for backing a side with Okafor in brilliant form and nothing to lose at a neutral venue. For those with free bets to use, this is exactly the sort of odds-against play I’m happy to take.