Everton vs Manchester United Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Everton and Manchester United meet at Hill Dickinson Stadium on Monday morning New Zealand time, with both sides still trying to figure out who they are this season. 

Everton are unbeaten with four points from two. United bounced back from their opening-day humiliation at Hull with a 5-2 demolition of Ipswich, Bruno Fernandes scoring a hat-trick.

Deadline day changed Everton’s squad significantly, and that’s the key theme of this Everton vs Manchester United preview. I’ve got a BTTS angle I’m keen on for anyone hunting football betting tips this week.

Everton

I don’t trust Everton’s results as much as their four points suggest. 

Everton beat Crystal Palace 2-0 at home despite generating just 1.16 expected goals to Palace’s 2.04. Jordan Pickford was outstanding, and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall’s thunderbolt from distance and Thierno Barry’s header were clinical finishes against the run of play.

At Bournemouth, they trailed through an Alex Scott goal until the 91st minute, when James Tarkowski headed in from a corner. Four points from two games where Everton haven’t been the better side for sustained spells.

Deadline day reshaped their attack. 

Iliman Ndiaye - who started both games and was their most direct creator - left for Manchester City in a deal worth up to 65 million pounds. Jack Grealish came back the other way on loan. He’s fit and available, which gives Moyes a different profile on the left. But Barry is now carrying the forward line alone after Beto’s departure to Fiorentina.

Team News: Norgaard is out. Hackney is a doubt with an ankle problem. Grealish is registered and available.

Predicted Lineup: Pickford; Rohl, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Mykolenko; Garner, Armstrong; Johnson, Dewsbury-Hall, Grealish; Barry.

Manchester United

So far we’ve seen two games, and two completely different versions of this team.

At Hull, United had 72% possession, 21 shots, 34 open-play crosses and lost 2-0 to set-piece goals from Semi Ajayi and Nobel Mendy. They couldn’t break down a low block and looked clueless doing it.

Against Ipswich, they fell a goal down through Leif Davis before Fernandes took over. He equalised before half-time, then scored twice more in a second-half spell that ripped Ipswich apart. Four goal involvements on the day. Carrick refused to get carried away after, and I think he was right not to. Ipswich came out and played, which suited United perfectly.

I’m not sure which version turns up here. Everton will drop deep, like Hull did, and force United to create from nothing.

Team News: Amad is out with a foot injury. Baleba is unavailable with ankle ligament damage. Mount is close to a return and could feature. Ugarte and De Ligt are long-term absentees. Sesko is fit and competing with Cunha for the striker spot.

Predicted Lineup: Lammens; Dalot, Maguire, Martinez, Shaw; Mainoo, Tielemans; Mbeumo, Fernandes, Rashford; Cunha.

• Everton haven’t beaten United at home in the league since April 2022.
• United won 1-0 at Hill Dickinson Stadium in February, with Benjamin Sesko scoring from the bench.
• Both of United’s goals conceded at Hull came from set pieces.
• Everton’s stoppage-time equaliser at Bournemouth also came from a corner.
• Fernandes now has 17 goal involvements in his last 15 league games against promoted sides.

I’m torn on this one.

United’s away form is my concern. They looked lost at Hull against a team happy to defend and counter, and Everton will set up the same way. Moyes is too experienced to let his side get stretched by Fernandes and Mbeumo in transition - he’ll want to force United wide, where they were harmless against Hull. If Everton can frustrate United into aimless crossing, they’ve got a shot.

But I can’t back Everton to win either. Barry is their only recognised striker and Grealish has barely played in months. Losing Ndiaye two days before a match like this isn’t ideal preparation. Moyes will have a plan, though. He always does against his former club.

If you’re hunting for value using free bets from the top bookmakers this week, I’d look at the draw before either outright winner. A 1-1 feels right. Tarkowski heading in from another set piece wouldn’t surprise me at all.

Both Teams to Score @ $1.55

Everton have scored in both their league games, and their set-piece threat through Tarkowski is legitimate. United’s back four is still being decided - Maguire and Martinez haven’t started together this season. Whoever plays at right-back will have to deal with Grealish drifting infield.

Fernandes has four goal involvements in two games. Mbeumo and Cunha both had chances at Hull even when United were poor, and Rashford looked lively off the bench in both matches. I’d expect at least one of them to find the net against a defence that shipped 2.04 xG to Crystal Palace.

At $1.55, I’m comfortable backing it on the best NZ betting sites available.