Hull City vs Aston Villa Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Hull City and Aston Villa meet at the MKM Stadium on Sunday morning NZT in a game most people would have written off a month ago. Not any more. Promoted Hull are third with six points from two games. Villa are 19th with none - zero goals and zero shots on target across their opening two fixtures.

In this Hull City vs Aston Villa preview, I look at whether Villa can snap out of their wretched start or if the Tigers can extend their perfect record.

I’ve got an eye on the match result market for those checking the bet on football options this week.

Hull City

Two wins. Two clean sheets. I didn’t see it coming.

Semi Ajayi and Nobel Mendy scored from set pieces in the first half against Manchester United on the opening weekend, and Konstantinos Tzolakis had very little to do in goal. At Coventry a week later it was tighter - Hull struggled to break through before substitute Liam Millar won it with eight minutes to go.

Sergej Jakirovic has drilled this side well. Their defensive shape against Man United was excellent, and Regan Slater is doing the ugly work in midfield that goes unnoticed. I’m wary of the xG gap, though. Hull’s 1.26 xG against Man United’s 1.81 tells me those set pieces were decisive rather than dominant.

Deadline day was busy. Ilyas Ansah, Brooke Norton-Cuffy, Mohamed-Ali Cho and Lucas Gourna-Douath have all arrived. It’ll take time for these newcomers to gel.

Team News: Matazo, Butland, Hughes, Gyabi, Zambrano and Crooks are all out. Gelhardt and Jacob are doubts. Millar has joined Birmingham on loan.

Predicted Lineup: Tzolakis; Drameh, Ajayi, Mendy, Coyle; Slater, Hadziahmetovic; Belloumi, Gourna-Douath, Ndala; McBurnie.

Aston Villa

Zero shots on target in 180 minutes of Premier League football. I can’t think of a worse opening for a club that won the Europa League four months ago. 

Rogers went to Chelsea for £117m. Watkins left for Al-Hilal, Konsa for Arsenal, Tielemans to Man United. Martinez and Digne went too. What arrived in return is largely unintegrated.

Nicolas Jackson signed from Chelsea on deadline week. Leon Goretzka is a free agent who Emery says is fit but needs sessions. Alejandro Garnacho came in on loan. Against Brighton, all four goals went in by the 31st minute - a Lindelof own goal, a Maxim De Cuyper finish, and a Jack Hinshelwood double in the space of 60 seconds. Gomes’s red card in the 40th minute came after the damage was already done. Against Arsenal it was better without being good - Villa lost 1-0 through a Bukayo Saka goal and generated an xG of 0.3.

I do think Jackson starting changes the look of this team up front. But asking him to produce immediately in a side still figuring out its shape is a lot.

Team News: Gomes is suspended. Onana (ACL), Manzambi (knee) and Madjo (ankle) are out. Bailey is injured. Abraham is a doubt. Goretzka could feature.

Predicted Lineup: Suzuki; Cash, Torres, Lindelof, Maatsen; Kamara, Barkley; McGinn, Buendia, Garnacho; Jackson.

• Hull have recorded clean sheets in both Premier League games this season.
• Villa have not registered a shot on target across their opening two fixtures.
• Villa haven’t won at the MKM Stadium since January 2019.
• Both teams scored in just five of the last 12 meetings between these sides.
• Hull are unbeaten at home since returning to the Premier League.

I’m tipping an upset.

Villa are the bookmakers’ favourites and I understand why - their squad on paper is far superior. But squads on paper don’t score goals. Villa haven’t threatened anyone yet, and expecting Nicolas Jackson to fix that after one substitute appearance is a big ask.

Hull at home are a different proposition to what most predicted. Two clean sheets, and they look well organised across the park. I expected them to be the weakest promoted side and they’ve proven me wrong twice already.

For anyone tracking this one through the best new betting sites available in NZ, I’d focus on the match result or the under 2.5 goals market.

Hull City Win @ $3.50

I’m going against the grain. Villa’s combined xG of 0.61 across two games is the lowest in the league and they’ve lost three of their last four competitive matches without scoring.

Hull don’t need to be brilliant. They need to be organised, take one set-piece chance, and let Tzolakis do the rest. That’s exactly what they’ve done twice already.

At $3.50, it’s a price I’m happy to back on the best legal sports betting sites available in New Zealand.