Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Liverpool and Atletico Madrid go at it again at Anfield on Thursday morning New Zealand time in a Champions League league phase game that comes with plenty of baggage. Liverpool won this exact fixture 3-2 last season, and Diego Simeone will want a response.

In this Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid preview, I’ve gone through the early form, the Alvarez situation, and a goals-market price around $3.60 that interests me for those keen on football betting this week.

Liverpool

Andoni Iraola got off the mark at the third attempt on Friday, with Alexander Isak scoring twice inside nine minutes at Ipswich in a 2-0 win. Cody Gakpo set up both goals. That connection between the two of them is developing quickly.

Before Ipswich it was two consecutive 2-2 results. Dominik Szoboszlai’s 99th-minute penalty rescued a point at Newcastle, and Victor Munoz levelled late against Forest after Liverpool had trailed twice at Anfield.

I’m cautiously positive about them here, though. Their pressing looked sharper at Portman Road, the defence recorded a clean sheet for the first time, and Anfield under the European lights is a completely different proposition. Liverpool won all four home Champions League league phase games last season.

Isak has three goals in three league outings. With Bradley Barcola available off the bench after his debut at Ipswich - a deal worth up to £123 million from PSG - Iraola’s attacking options are starting to fill out.

Team News: Bradley is out long-term with a knee injury. Chiesa has a back problem and won’t feature. Barcola is fit and available.

Predicted Lineup: Alisson; Araujo, Jacquet, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Gravenberch, Szoboszlai; Ngumoha, Wirtz, Gakpo; Isak.

Atletico Madrid

Athletic Bilbao tore Atletico apart 3-0 at San Mames on Saturday. Two goals in three minutes early in the second half from Nico Williams and Robert Navarro ended the contest, and Oihan Sancet added a third.

A rough way to end what had been a strong opening. Alex Baena has been excellent - three goals in his first three La Liga games, including a brace in a 3-1 win at Sevilla. Ademola Lookman has impressed since arriving.

The Julian Alvarez situation hangs over everything. He pushed for a move to Barcelona all summer, was left off the bench entirely for the Sevilla win, and only appeared as a substitute at Bilbao after the window closed. Simeone called it a “personal process.” Sorloth is also missing with a muscle injury until mid-September, and deadline-day loan arrival Jonathan David has barely had time to settle.

I’m not confident Atletico have enough firepower right now. Lookman and Baena are performing, but the depth up front is thin.

Team News: Sorloth is out with a muscle injury. Alvarez is available but his involvement is uncertain. David is eligible. Le Normand is suspended in La Liga from his red card against Villarreal but is available for this fixture.

Predicted Lineup: Oblak; Pubill, Le Normand, Hancko, Grimaldo; Barrios, Hjulmand; Lee Kang-In, Baena, Lookman; Alvarez.

• Liverpool won this fixture 3-2 at Anfield in last season’s Champions League league phase.
• Atletico have never won a Champions League league phase or group stage game against an English club.
• Liverpool have won their last six Champions League fixtures against Spanish opposition.
• Liverpool conceded in both of their first two Premier League games this season before recording a clean sheet at Ipswich.
• Atletico shipped three goals at Athletic Bilbao on Saturday in their first La Liga defeat of the campaign.

Liverpool should win this. 

The Bilbao result confirmed what I suspected - without Sorloth and with Alvarez only half present, Atletico’s attack depends almost entirely on Baena creating from midfield. Lookman is a good player, but he doesn’t frighten in the way Antoine Griezmann did in these fixtures.

Liverpool’s defence is a work in progress - four goals conceded across those opening two Premier League results is evidence of that. But Anfield on a European night is a different kettle of fish. Case in point: Iraola’s side generated 2.73 xG at Newcastle and then clinically dismantled Ipswich.

If you’ve got access to some of the latest betting promotions available in New Zealand, I’d focus on the goals markets. Atletico will counter, but controlling this game for 90 minutes at Anfield feels beyond them right now.

Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score @ $3.60

Four of Liverpool’s last five Champions League home games produced three or more goals. Atletico have scored in 22 of their last 24 Champions League outings.

Liverpool will attack from the start - this is Iraola’s first European fixture at the club and the crowd will demand intensity. Isak and Gakpo are in form. But Liverpool’s defensive fragility is real, and Atletico are exactly the type of side to punish overcommitment on the counter. Baena’s form from deep is a threat even if Alvarez isn’t fully committed.

At $3.60, I’m backing goals from both ends on the live betting sites available in New Zealand.