Premier League: Liverpool vs Chelsea - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Liverpool and Chelsea meet at Anfield on Saturday night New Zealand time in a Premier League fixture that means very different things to each side.

Liverpool are fourth on 58 points with three games to go. Chelsea are ninth on 48, their season reduced to an FA Cup final and not much else. 

In this Liverpool vs Chelsea preview, I’ve got a look at form, team news, and a goal-market angle on football betting sites that I reckon is worth a look given how open both sides have been.

Liverpool

Arne Slot’s side won three of four before last weekend’s 3-2 loss at Old Trafford. That result was chaotic – 2-0 down inside 15 minutes, level through Dominik Szoboszlai and Cody Gakpo, then Kobbie Mainoo firing in a late winner.

I’m not panicking about that loss though. Liverpool have 10 wins from 17 at Anfield this season, and Florian Wirtz has five league goals in his first campaign at the club. If Isak starts alongside him, Liverpool are a different proposition up front.

Team News: Salah is out with a muscle injury. Isak and Alisson are doubts but could return. Ekitike, Bradley, Leoni, Bajcetic, and Endo are long-term absentees.

Predicted Lineup: Alisson; Jones, Konate, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Frimpong, Wirtz, Gakpo; Isak.

Chelsea

I don’t know where to start with Chelsea. Six straight Premier League defeats – their worst league run since 1993. Five of those without scoring. Cole Palmer had a penalty saved in Monday’s 1-3 loss to Nottingham Forest too. It’s grim.

Enzo Maresca was sacked in January. Liam Rosenior replaced him but lasted barely three months, and now Under-21s coach Calum McFarlane is in charge as interim. McFarlane’s one Premier League result is the Forest loss. He did guide Chelsea past Leeds in the FA Cup semi-final, so the cup final against Manchester City on May 14 is the obvious priority.

Palmer has nine league goals this season but hasn’t found the net since February’s hat-trick against Wolves. Neto and Garnacho both missed the Forest game but should be available here.

Team News: Estevao and Gittens are out. Jorgensen had groin surgery. Sanchez needs to pass concussion protocols. Neto and Garnacho should return.

Predicted Lineup: Sanchez; Gusto, Adarabioyo, Chalobah, Cucurella; Lavia, Caicedo; Palmer, Fernandez, Neto; Joao Pedro.

• Chelsea have lost six consecutive Premier League matches, matching their worst run in the competition from 1993-94.
• Liverpool have won 10 of 17 at Anfield in the league this season.
• Chelsea went five consecutive league games without scoring before Joao Pedro’s consolation against Forest on Monday.
• The reverse fixture at Stamford Bridge ended 2-1 to Chelsea in October, with Estevao Willian scoring a 95th-minute winner.
• Both teams have conceded in at least six of their last eight league outings.

I’m expecting Liverpool to win this, but I’m not sure it’ll be comfortable. Chelsea are a mess in the league, and coming to Anfield off six straight losses is about as tough as it gets. But Liverpool have been inconsistent too. They’ve conceded in plenty of home games, and there’s a vulnerability about them without Salah.

If Isak is fit, I’d be more confident in Liverpool putting this to bed early. Without him they looked blunt in the first half at Old Trafford, and Slot had to lean on Gakpo as a false nine. That’s not ideal against a side who still have Caicedo and Lavia sitting in front of a deep block.

Palmer hasn’t scored in the league since February but Anfield might be the sort of stage where he comes alive. I thought he looked frustrated against Forest rather than disinterested, and his set-piece delivery is still dangerous. Neto coming back gives Chelsea an outlet on the counter too. I wouldn’t be surprised if they nicked a goal.

I’m going 2-1 Liverpool. Anfield and the top-four chase all point one way. But I don’t see a clean sheet in this for either side. For those browsing NZ betting apps, the goals market is the one I’d be looking at here.

Over 2.5 Goals @ $1.50

Both defences have been porous. Liverpool have conceded in six of their last eight, and Chelsea’s defensive record over this losing run speaks for itself. Even in their current state, Chelsea have been involved in open games: their Forest loss was 3-1, Brighton 3-0, Man City 3-0.

Liverpool have scored in all but one of their last 10 home matches. Chelsea have nothing to lose in the league, and McFarlane might give his attackers freedom to express themselves with one eye on the cup final.

At $1.50 it’s short, but I’d be comfortable including it in a multi. If you’re after free bets to test this one, it’s a solid anchor leg.