Napoli vs Arsenal Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Napoli and Arsenal open their Champions League campaigns at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona on Thursday morning New Zealand time, with both clubs after a strong start to the revamped league phase format.

Napoli come into this one bruised after back-to-back Serie A defeats, the most recent a spectacular collapse at Inter on Saturday. Arsenal haven’t dropped a point. Three from three in the Premier League, six scored, one conceded.

In this Napoli vs Arsenal preview, I’m looking at form, team news and what this opener could produce. I’ve also got a goals-market angle at over $3.00 for those scanning football betting odds this week.

Napoli

Three games into Serie A and Massimiliano Allegri is already under pressure.

A 2-0 win at Genoa on the opening day has been followed by two defeats. Against Como at the Maradona, Frank Anguissa’s careless backpass gifted Anastasios Douvikas the winner in a 2-1 loss. Then at San Siro on Saturday, Napoli led 2-0 inside 53 minutes through Matteo Politano and Rasmus Hojlund before Lautaro Martinez dragged Inter back with a brace, the winner arriving in the 91st minute. Three points from three games.

Hojlund has been the one positive. Two goals in three league appearances since his move from Manchester United was made permanent. Kevin De Bruyne hasn’t started a Serie A game yet this season, coming off the bench in both defeats.

Team News: McTominay is out after a minor heart procedure. Buongiorno and Marianucci are sidelined. Mazzocchi is also unavailable.

Predicted Lineup: Meret; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Rafa Marin, Spinazzola; Anguissa, Lobotka, De Bruyne; Politano, Hojlund, Neres.

Arsenal

Arsenal couldn’t be more different: they’re three wins from three, with six goals scored, and just one conceded.

I was impressed by their Chelsea win on Sunday. Arsenal went down after 77 seconds to a Morgan Rogers volley. Kai Havertz equalised before the break, and Martin Odegaard fired the winner early in the second half after a brilliant Havertz dummy. Arteta didn’t panic. Neither did the team.

What I don’t know is how much William Saliba’s absence will cost them at a ground like the Maradona. His back injury has kept him out of all three league games. Ezri Konsa, signed from Aston Villa for 51 million pounds, has stepped in and looked comfortable, but a European night in Naples is a different ask.

Their Champions League pedigree is strong, though. Won all eight league phase games last season. A 3-1 win at Inter in January was one of the standout performances of a campaign that ended with a penalty shootout loss to PSG in the Budapest final.

Team News: Saliba is out with a back problem. Mosquera and Timber are also unavailable. Guimaraes is fit and expected to start.

Predicted Lineup: Raya; White, Konsa, Gabriel, Calafiori; Rice, Guimaraes; Saka, Odegaard, Tzolis; Havertz.

• Arsenal won all eight Champions League league phase games last season.
• Napoli have lost consecutive matches for the first time since January.
• Arsenal won 3-1 at Inter in their most recent Champions League trip to Italy.
• Hojlund has scored in two of Napoli’s three Serie A fixtures this season.
• Arsenal have scored in 18 consecutive Champions League games.

I’m going with Arsenal to win here.

Napoli’s collapse at Inter has done damage. Blowing a 2-0 lead and conceding a 91st-minute winner three days before hosting the reigning Premier League champions is about as difficult a turnaround as you’ll find.

I’m not totally comfortable at $1.80, I’ll admit. Allegri is pragmatic, the Maradona will be hostile, and Napoli have the quality to cause problems on the night. But Arsenal’s depth is frightening. Viktor Gyokeres and Bruno Guimaraes came off the bench against Chelsea. So did Mikel Merino and Martin Zubimendi. Their recent record in Italy gives them an edge I can’t overlook.

If you’re tracking this through sports betting apps, I’d focus on the goals markets. Arsenal will press, and Napoli can’t afford to be passive at the Maradona.

Arsenal Win and Over 2.5 Goals @ $3.20

Napoli’s defence has conceded five goals in three Serie A matches, with errors from Anguissa and a total breakdown against Inter responsible for most of them. Arsenal have looked dangerous in every game so far this season, and Napoli’s backline has given them no reason to be cautious.

I’m expecting Arsenal to take charge. With Hojlund and De Bruyne at the other end, there should be enough for the overs crowd too.

At $3.20 through the legal betting sites available in New Zealand, I’m backing Arsenal to win with at least three goals in the game.