Netherlands vs Germany Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Both of these teams turn up in Amsterdam with a brand new coach.

Netherlands and Germany get their 2026-27 Nations League campaign going at the Johan Cruijff ArenA at 6.45am on Friday New Zealand time, with Xavi Hernandez in the home dugout for the first time and Jurgen Klopp opposite him. Serbia and Greece round out Group A2, so this one decides who controls the section early.

In this Netherlands vs Germany preview I look at both squads and how these untested line-ups might shape up. Neither nation has played since June, which is why I’ve ended up in the goals markets rather than a clean sheet.

There’s a price around $3.50 that I like in there for anyone doing their football sports betting homework this week.

Netherlands

I rate this Dutch group higher than their World Cup exit suggests.

They topped their group in North America with 10 goals from three matches before Morocco knocked them out on penalties in the last 32. Two of their last three tournaments have now ended in a shootout, which is just rotten luck as opposed to anything structural.

Xavi hasn’t eased himself in gently. Memphis Depay and Wout Weghorst are both absent from his first squad, leaving Brian Brobbey as the only orthodox centre-forward and Cody Gakpo the obvious alternative through the middle.

Their core is still very strong. Virgil van Dijk and Ryan Gravenberch both arrive in reasonable club form, and Amsterdam has generally treated them well against this opponent. Oranje drew 2-2 with Germany at this ground two years ago.

Team News: De Jong, De Ligt, Schouten, Simons, Maatsen and Wieffer are all injured. Depay and Weghorst weren’t selected.

Predicted Lineup: Verbruggen; Dumfries, Van Dijk, Van de Ven, Hato; Reijnders, Gravenberch, Koopmeiners; Malen, Gakpo, Lang.

Germany

Klopp has torn the whole lot up.

His first squad numbered 44 players across two separate groups, 16 of them uncapped, and the 24 travelling to Amsterdam don’t include Florian Wirtz or Nick Woltemade. Both were held back for October, which leaves Kai Havertz as the only capped forward available and uncapped Frankfurt forward Younes Ebnoutalib as cover.

Joshua Kimmich, Jamal Musiala, Serge Gnabry and Jonathan Tah give Klopp a recognisable spine. Marc-Andre ter Stegen goes in as first choice goalkeeper, and he plays his club football at this stadium after joining Ajax on loan.

I’m wary of writing them off. Germany are unbeaten in the last four against the Dutch, and their World Cup group stage was solid enough. Seven goals past Curacao and a 2-1 win over Ivory Coast before a 2-1 defeat to Ecuador that still left them top of Group E.

Team News: Wirtz and Woltemade are in the October group. Goretzka and Sane weren’t selected, and Undav is still managing an Achilles problem. Neuer and Rudiger have retired.

Predicted Lineup: Ter Stegen; Vagnoman, Tah, Schlotterbeck, Brown; Kimmich, Nmecha; Gnabry, Musiala, Karl; Havertz.

• Germany are unbeaten in the last four meetings against the Netherlands.
• Netherlands haven’t beaten Germany since September 2019.
• Germany lead the all-time series 18 wins to 12 from 48 games.
• Over 2.5 goals has come in three of the last five meetings.
• Both nations went out of the World Cup on penalties in the round of 32.

I’m on the Netherlands, but I’m not especially confident about what the scoreline will be.

Home advantage counts for plenty when neither squad has played together since June. Xavi also has a more settled pool of players than his counterpart, who’s using this window to look at players he’s literally never worked with.

Germany’s makeshift attack is what tips it for me. Havertz has to lead the line against Van Dijk with almost nothing on the bench if it isn’t working, and a first-choice German front three would look a lot different to this one.

I could look silly. Klopp sides usually press hard from the first whistle, and a young German group with no reputation to protect in a hostile stadium is exactly what ruins a tip like mine.

Anyone hunting a longer price on the best sports betting apps in NZ should be looking at correct score rather than the match result.

Netherlands to Win and Over 2.5 Goals @ $3.50

Oranje scored 10 times in three group matches at the World Cup, and they attack a German back line protecting a goalkeeper who’s played very little football across the past two seasons through injury.

Germany will score as well. Musiala and Gnabry will find room against a Dutch defence playing its first match under a new coach, and Havertz got the equaliser in that Paraguay shootout defeat in June. Over 2.5 goals has come in three of the last five between them, including a 2-2 draw at this ground in 2024.

At $3.50 it’s a price I’m happy to take on the best new betting sites operating in New Zealand.