Portugal vs Croatia Prediction: World Cup Betting Tips & Odds

Odds provided by Betista

Portugal and Croatia meet at BMO Field in Toronto on Friday morning New Zealand time in the World Cup Round of 32.

In this Portugal vs Croatia preview, I look at where the value lies in what I expect to be a cagey knockout affair, with a goals-market angle as one of my top football betting tips this week.

Portugal

Portugal thumped Uzbekistan 5-0 but failed to score against Colombia and let a lead slip against DR Congo. 

Cristiano Ronaldo scored twice against Uzbekistan, but against better opposition he looked every bit his 41 years. I wouldn’t be surprised if Martinez finally rotates him - Goncalo Ramos hasn’t started a match despite winning back-to-back Champions League titles with PSG.

Team News: Ronaldo played every minute of the group stage. No fresh injury worries.

Predicted Lineup: Costa; Dalot, Dias, Araujo, Mendes; Vitinha, Neves; Fernandes, Neto, Leao; Ronaldo.

Croatia

Croatia lost 4-2 to England but steadied with wins over Panama and Ghana. 

Luka Modric, now 40, assisted Nikola Vlasic’s winner against Ghana and I know better than to write him off in a knockout match. Croatia were finalists in 2018 and third in 2022 - there’s a composure in their squad that only comes from tournament experience.

Team News: No injury concerns. Full squad available.

Predicted Lineup: Livakovic; Stanisic, Sutalo, Gvardiol; Perisic, Modric, Kovacic, Sosa; Sucic, Budimir, Baturina.

• Portugal have won six of eight all-time meetings with Croatia.
• Croatia’s only win against Portugal came in a June 2024 friendly.
• Portugal conceded just once in three group games.

I’m tipping Portugal to go through, but I don’t expect them to blow Croatia away. 

This feels like a 1-0 or a scrappy 2-1. Croatia will be organised and compact, and if it goes to extra time, I’m not confident Ronaldo has another 30 minutes in his legs after playing every minute of the group stage.

If you’re tracking the knockout markets through live betting sites, I’d watch the second half.

Under 2.5 Goals @ $1.72

Portugal struggled to create against good opposition in the group stage. Croatia are set up to defend and counter. 

Portugal’s only high-scoring match was against the tournament’s weakest team, and Croatia won their last two matches 1-0 and 2-1.

At $1.72, this isn’t a monster price, but I’m backing it with confidence on the NZ betting sites I use.