Premier League: Aston Villa vs Manchester United - Betting Tips, Odds & Prediction

Aston Villa host Manchester United on Monday morning New Zealand time in a match that has chaos written all over it.

You have Aston Villa, who have turned their home ground into a fortress, going up against a Manchester United team that seemingly only knows how to play in fifth gear. United were involved in a hectic 4-4 draw last weekend, while Villa edged a five-goal thriller themselves. It’s safe to say if you like goals, this is the one to watch.

I have taken a deep dive into the stats and form guides to find the best angle for this one. Read on for my analysis, particularly if you like football betting tips that pay over $3.60.

Aston Villa

Unai Emery has done a brilliant job with Aston Villa this season.

Sitting third in the table is no fluke: they are organised, lethal on the break, and do not know when they are beaten. Their win against West Ham last week exemplified this, when they came from behind to bag the full three.

At home, they are a different beast entirely. Villa move the ball so quickly on that pitch and I think they will fancy their chances of getting at this United defence. Morgan Rogers is looking like a real player in the middle of the park, driving them forward and linking play brilliantly.

My only worry for them is the high line. We know United have pace to burn upfront, and if Villa do not get their pressure right, they could get caught out over the top.

Team News: Tyrone Mings is still out with that long-term injury. Ollie Watkins is fit and will lead the line, looking to add to his tally.

Predicted Lineup: Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Torres, Digne; Onana, Tielemans; Bailey, Rogers, McGinn; Watkins.

Manchester United

I honestly do not know what to make of Manchester United this season.

One minute they look like world-beaters, the next they are conceding four at home to Bournemouth. They leave massive gaps in midfield that good teams will exploit. However, you cannot ignore their firepower. 

United actually have a decent record at Villa Park in recent years, which is one thing in their favour. But if they defend like they did last weekend, they will get punished. Betting apps have them as outsiders here, which feels about right given their chaotic form.

Team News: Harry Maguire is a major doubt after limping off last week. Casemiro is suspended, which is a big blow to their midfield stability.

Predicted Lineup: Onana; Dalot, De Ligt, Martinez, Mazraoui; Ugarte, Mainoo; Garnacho, Fernandes, Rashford; Hojlund.

• Manchester United have won four of their last five matches against Aston Villa in all competitions.
• Aston Villa have won their last six Premier League matches at Villa Park.
• There have been over 2.5 goals scored in eight of Manchester United’s last 10 league games.
• Both teams have scored in five of the last six meetings between these two sides.

I am expecting goals in this one, as neither team knows how to play it safe.

Aston Villa will take the game to United, and I think their midfield control is going to be the difference. Without Casemiro, United are going to struggle to stop Villa playing through the lines. Rogers and Youri Tielemans should run the show in the middle.

That said, United are arguably the best counter-attacking team in the league. They will get chances, and I fully expect them to score. But defensively, I just cannot trust them. They give up way too many shots and Villa are ruthless enough to take advantage.

I think Villa wins a high-scoring game. I’m predicting a 3-2 win for Aston Villa, so keep an eye out for free bets if you want to take a punt on the correct score.

Aston Villa to Win & BTTS @ $3.60

I am all over this market for Monday morning.

The stats scream goals. United have been involved in goal-fests all month, and Villa are scoring for fun at home. It is almost impossible to see United keeping a clean sheet here, but they almost always find the net themselves.

The value on Villa to win with both teams scoring is massive. You are getting over $3.00 for the most likely outcome in my eyes. Villa are simply the better team right now, but United’s attack will ensure they at least get on the scoresheet.

Getting $3.60 at Bet and Play for a home win where the visitors score is too good to turn down.