NBA Odds, Best Bets and Expert Tips | May 16

I’ve got three NBA tips across bet on NBA NZ platforms this Saturday. Cleveland finally broke their road hoodoo with an overtime win in Detroit, and now they’re one game from the Eastern Conference Finals. In the West, San Antonio are one win from ending Minnesota’s season after a 29-point blowout in Game 5.

Cavaliers -3 | $1.90 @ Betandplay

Cleveland’s overtime win in Game 5 changed this series. The Cavaliers had been 0-5 on the road in the 2026 playoffs before Thursday’s 117-113 result, and winning at Little Caesars Arena - where Detroit had gone 5-1 this postseason - removes any doubt heading into a closeout game. 

James Harden had 30 points and Max Strus went 6-of-8 from three. Jarrett Allen added 16 points and 10 rebounds. Even with Donovan Mitchell shooting 1-of-8 from deep, Cleveland found enough.

Cade Cunningham was excellent in Game 5 with 39 points on 6-of-10 from three. But his supporting cast is fading - Caris LeVert managed just seven points on a sore heel, and the Pistons’ road record in this series is grim. 

I’m backing Cleveland at home on best legal betting sites to close this out.

Spurs -5.5 | $1.85 @ Betista

I like San Antonio to close this out here. 

Minnesota’s 4-1 against the spread at home in the playoffs, and Anthony Edwards dropped 36 in Game 4 when the Target Center crowd was loud. There’s a case for the Timberwolves. 

But the Game 5 blowout told me everything I needed to know about the gap between these two teams right now.

Victor Wembanyama had 27 points and 17 rebounds in that 126-97 win, and San Antonio shot 52.8% from the field. Julius Randle is shooting 36.6% in this series. Donte DiVincenzo is done for the season with a torn Achilles, and that’s gutted Minnesota’s bench production. The Spurs’ defensive rating is first in the 2026 playoffs and Wembanyama’s length changes every shot opponents attempt at the rim.

Under 218.5 | $1.95 @ VipLuck

I’m expecting a grind here. Minnesota have averaged 99 points in Games 2 and 5 - the two games where San Antonio’s defence was fully locked in. 

Without DiVincenzo, the Timberwolves’ offensive spacing has been poor all series. They averaged 106 points across the five full games since his injury, and the Spurs are the wrong team to try and outscore.

De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper were both questionable with ankle and knee soreness before Game 5. If either is limited on Friday, San Antonio’s half-court offence could slow down too, which only helps the under. 

I’m putting this one on free bets available across NZ sportsbooks.