Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Expert Tips and Best Bets | September 10

Women’s semi-finals day is here, and with the top four players in the world going head to head it’s shaping up as a cracker. World number one Aryna Sabalenka takes on world number three Jessica Pegula for the first spot in the 2026 US Open Final, before world number four and local hope Coco Gauff takes on second seed Elena Rybakina. Take a look at our best bets for the day’s action below.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula: Sabalenka to win | $1.51 with Betista

It’s just impossible to go past Sabalenka at this event right now, and anytime you can find odds of around $1.50 with betting sites like you can for this one, it’s hard to go past. The two-time reigning champion has now won 19 consecutive matches at Flushing Meadows, having won the last two editions of the event, and though she went perilously close to that run ending against Linda Noskova in the quarter-finals, her star pedigree came through when it mattered most. That match yielded the first set she had lost all tournament, taking her total lost sets in the past three years here to three – one per year. At the ripe old age of 32, Pegula has been brilliant at this event and is in probably the best form of her career, but Sabalenka is just on another level. Pegula actually has a decent record against the world number one, having split their last four meetings two wins apiece, but at the US Open it’s a different story – Sabalenka has ended the run of Pegula at the last two US Opens, and can do it again in 2026.

Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina: Rybakina to win | $2.02 with BetandPlay

Of the two semi-finals, this one looks the most likely to go down to the wire, but at better than even money with most betting apps Rybakina looks like quite good value. These two have both had very similar tournaments, each of them winning through to the quarter-finals without dropping a set before being forced to fightback from 1-0 down in their last matches to earn a spot in the final four. They’ve spent a similar amount of time on court, have both beaten some very capable opponents, and are generally fairly difficult to separate. Gauff, of course, does have the home court advantage, but she’s probably also got more pressure riding on her as a result, particularly having only once made it to this stage of her home event. The two don’t have a great deal of history between them having only met twice, but while Gauff holds the 2-1 edge there, the American’s victories both came in 2023 or earlier, when she was an established player and Rybakina was not yet near the level she currently is. They met recently at the Canadian Open, and on that occasion Rybakina was far too good after dropping the first set, winning the next two 6-2 6-2. She simply overpowered her opponent on that occasion, and based on that deserves favouritism in this one. At over $2, she is good value to win this one.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula: Sabalenka to record 7+ aces | $2.20 with Zoccer

A player prop rounds out our best bet of the day as we focus on the world number one’s thunderous serve. Sabalenka’s ace numbers have been up and down like a yoyo this tournament, but this is a number which is, of course, heavily dependent on how long a match goes for. Unlike a couple of her previous matches in which Sabalenka has waltzed to victory, she will likely require a few more service games than usual in this one, which it’s very easy to see going to three sets. Against Noskova in her last match, Sabalenka picked up a huge 12 aces while she also managed double figures in the fourth round despite winning 6-3 6-4. Pegula is not an easy woman to get past, but she conceded 8 aces to Emma Navarro in her last outing, and Sabalenka’s serve is another proposition entirely. At comfortably better than even money, 7+ aces looks like a good bet, and for a bit more value 9 or 10 would also be a decent bet.