Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton Expert Tips and Best Bets | September 13

The final match of a terrific two weeks at Flushing Meadows will take place on Sunday in the form of the men’s final, with number one seed Alexander Zverev taking on hometown favourite Ben Shelton. Both players will be looking to win their inaugural US Open Championship, with Shelton having never won a Grand Slam and Zverev having only finally broken his long drought at the French Open earlier this year. The number one seed heads in as favourite, but not by all that much, and with the crowd behind him it wouldn’t be a great shock to see Shelton cause an upset. Take a look at our three best bets for the big match below.

Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton: Zverev to win | $1.67 with Betista

There is no denying just how good Shelton has been at this tournament. He’s been dealt a reasonably tricky draw given his seed, being forced to face Herbert Hurkacz, Denis Shapovalov and then Stefanos Tsitsipas early in the tournament – all unseeded but formerly very highly ranked players. He then took on Carlos Alcaraz and beat him in one of the best wins of his career before knocking off Frances Tiafoe last match. That’s a hugely impressive run, but Zverev is the number one seed for a reason. Having finally broken his Grand Slam drought early this year, a significant monkey is off the German’s back, and he’s looked every bit the best player in this tournament – after a couple of nervy matches to start, he’s won his last four in straight sets. Adding further to his case is his record against Shelton; they’ve played five times and Zverev has won all of them dropping just a single set in that time. Interestingly, that was the first set in their first matchup – he came back to win that 2 sets to 1 and has won every match since in straight sets, giving him 10 consecutive set wins against the American. That doesn’t bode well for Shelton, and these odds look too high for the number one seed.

Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton: Zverev -1.5 sets | $2.20 with BetandPlay

We now look to add a little more value into the mix, and we’ve found it in Zverev to win the match in 4 sets or less, which yields us better than $2 with most betting sites. As mentioned, Zverev has won each of his last four matches in straight sets, and while Shelton is playing some brilliant tennis, his past record against the German does not bode well for his chances of winning this, or even taking it to five sets. Those aforementioned 10 consecutive set wins by Zverev have all come relatively recently – in fact the last four matches were in 2025 while the other was 2024, so it’s not as though they don’t have any bearing on this clash. Shelton is continuously on the improve, but Zverev is simply the superior player at this point in their respective careers, and can continue his dominance over the American with another powerful win.

Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton: Zverev -1.5 games | $1.80 with Zoccer

Finally to the game line, which betting apps have set at just -1.5 for Zverev, which seems very generous. This obviously means that throughout the course of the match the German needs to 2+ more games than Shelton. If he wins in three sets, that is a guarantee. If he wins in four, it’s extremely likely unless he was belted in the one set he lost and won the other three in very tight fashion. Even if he wins in five there is every chance he will go past this number, though at that stage there is obviously quite a lot of potential variance. Regardless, this is in line with our expectations of a Zverev win, and quite likely a comfortable one, and at close to even money looks like decent value.