Aston Villa vs Fulham Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Aston Villa vs Fulham kicks off at 9am NZT on Sunday at Villa Park, with both Premier League sides chasing a third straight league win.

Villa ended Manchester City’s perfect start with a 2-1 win on 24 October, while Fulham have climbed out of the bottom three with back-to-back 1-0 victories. I’ve skipped the match result in this Aston Villa vs Fulham preview and gone for a player market instead, priced comfortably over $2.

It’s one of my more confident football betting tips this week, so shop around for the best price.

Aston Villa

Villa only won their first home league game of the season last weekend.

That City result followed defeats to Arsenal and Nottingham Forest at Villa Park, plus a 2-2 draw with Brentford. Nicolas Jackson opened the scoring in the sixth minute. Erling Haaland pulled City level after the break before Jackson finished off an Ibrahim Mbaye pass for the winner.

I think Jackson is the reason to get on board with Villa right now. He’s scored seven goals in 11 games since his club-record move from Chelsea, and four of those have come in the Premier League.

Boubacar Kamara’s return has helped as well. He and Joao Gomes gave Villa a sturdy base in midfield against City, which freed John McGinn and Johan Manzambi to push forward and support Jackson. For a side that spent the early weeks of the season leaking goals, that pairing looks like their best option in the middle of the park.

Team News: Onana, Ruggeri and Wan-Bissaka are out, while Cisse is a doubt.

Predicted Lineup: Suzuki; Cash, Lindelof, Torres, Maatsen; Kamara, Gomes; Alysson, Manzambi, McGinn; Jackson.

Fulham

Fulham have scored eight goals in eight league games, and that’s my biggest concern about them here.

Two wins have changed the mood in west London, but neither was a goalfest. Alex Iwobi scored the winner against Hull City at Craven Cottage on 17 October. A week later, Oscar Bobb jinked into the box and bent a shot into the far corner 10 minutes from time at Coventry City.

That was Fulham’s first league win on the road since February.

Josh King is worth a mention too. He struck the post at Coventry and has two league goals and 11 chances created this season, which is more than most of their attack can claim. I like what he does between the lines, but he’s young and I wouldn’t expect him to drag Fulham through a tough away day on his own.

Fulham at $3.90 will tempt anyone looking at free sports bet promotions, but I don’t see enough goals in this side to justify it.

Team News: Sessegnon is suspended. Smith Rowe is a doubt.

Predicted Lineup: Leno; Castagne, Affengruber, Bassey, Robinson; Larsson, Charles; Bobb, King, Iwobi; Garcia.

• Villa have won their last five Premier League home games against Fulham.
• Fulham beat Villa 1-0 at Craven Cottage in April.
• Villa have scored in each of their last five league games.
• Fulham haven’t scored more than once in a league game since 5 September.
• Fulham have kept clean sheets in their last two league games.

Villa should have too much for Fulham’s attack.

I know two 1-0 wins look tidy on paper. But Fulham were up against Hull and Coventry, and they still needed Bobb’s late solo goal to beat a Coventry side that’s second from bottom. Villa at home are a different test, even with their patchy record at Villa Park this season.

My main hesitation is the turnaround. Both teams played League Cup ties on Wednesday, and three days isn’t much recovery time if either manager went strong. Fulham did beat Villa in April as well, so I won’t pretend this is a lock.

I’d lean towards under 2.5 goals if I was playing the totals. Fulham haven’t proved they can trouble a decent defence, and I expect Villa to be happy to manage the game once they’re ahead.

For me, it’s 2-0 Villa, with Jackson on the scoresheet.

Nicolas Jackson to Score Anytime @ $2.30

I’d rather back a striker in form than lay $1.83 on a Villa side that’s already lost twice at home this season.

Jackson’s brace against City was the first by a Villa player in a Premier League game against the league leaders since Andreas Weimann in November 2012. He’s also had 19 league shots this season, with seven of them on target.

Fulham’s two clean sheets came against Hull and Coventry. I can’t see them shutting Jackson out for 90 minutes at Villa Park.

You’ll find Jackson around $2.30 on most sports betting apps, and I’m happy to take that price.