Croatia vs England Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

The last time England played in Rijeka, nobody was let through the gates. This Sunday morning at 5am New Zealand time it’ll be deja vu.

Croatia and England will clash in an empty stadium at Stadion HNK Rijeka in this UEFA Nations League A3 fixture, as part of a UEFA sanction against Croatia. Blast from the past, anyone?

In this Croatia vs England preview I go through both sides’ form and team news, and I’ve settled on a result and BTTS combo paying north of $3.50. It’s a price worth chasing for anyone who likes to bet on football on a Sunday morning.

Croatia

I think Croatia got found out in Seville, and I’m not convinced it was all down to rotation.

Slaven Bilic made six changes from the win in Prague and Spain beat them 4-1 on 29 September. Dion Beljo’s header from an Ivan Perisic cross got them level, but Spain were back in front three minutes later and never looked like letting go. Luka Modric only came off the bench for the last nine minutes.

Prague was very different. Croatia had 16 shots to Czechia’s five on 26 September, and Modric scored two minutes after the restart before Marco Pasalic got the winner in the 77th minute. At 41, Modric is still dictating games.

My worry is their defence. They’ve shipped five goals in two Nations League games, and Dominik Livakovic was beaten at his near post for Lamine Yamal’s second in Seville.

If England score first, I’d be watching the draw price on live betting sites, because this Croatia side rarely folds without a fight.

Team News: Baturina, Erlic and Juranovic are all unavailable. Stanisic missed Seville injured and is a doubt.

Predicted Lineup: Livakovic; Smolcic, Vuskovic, Gvardiol, Perisic; Modric, Kovacic; Luka Sucic, Petar Sucic, Ivanovic; Matanovic.

England

England needed a result in Prague, and they got one.

They led 2-1 at Wembley on 26 September through Anthony Gordon and Harry Kane, then Kane slipped and struck the bar from the spot and Spain scored twice after the break. Three days later they beat 10-man Czechia 2-0, with Gordon heading in Trent Alexander-Arnold’s cross 67 seconds into the second half and Kane adding the second.

Gordon is the form player for me. He’s scored in both Nations League games and has four goals and four assists in his last nine England appearances.

I’m less sure about their back line. Before that clean sheet in Prague, England had conceded 13 goals across six games, and Jordan Pickford is due back in goal for this one.

Jude Bellingham was rested from the start against Czechia, so I’d expect him straight back in.

Team News: O’Reilly is out injured. Livramento, Mainoo, Palmer, Rashford and Rice have been ruled out of the window. Konsa is carrying a minor issue.

Predicted Lineup: Pickford; Alexander-Arnold, Chalobah, Guehi, Hall; Anderson, Lewis-Skelly; Saka, Bellingham, Gordon; Kane.

• England have won their last three meetings with Croatia.
• England beat Croatia 4-2 at the World Cup on 17 June.
• Croatia’s only win in the last six meetings came in the 2018 World Cup semi-final.
• Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.
• Spain scored inside two minutes against both sides in September.

I’m backing England to get over the line here.

An empty ground takes away most of Croatia’s home edge. Rijeka without a crowd was a flat, cagey night back in 2018, and I don’t see Croatia going toe to toe with England’s front four for 90 minutes.

That said, Croatia have scored in both games under Bilic and there’s more craft in their midfield than Czechia had. Modric and Mateo Kovacic can still hold the ball under pressure, and England looked shaky at Wembley whenever Spain got bodies into the box late.

I can’t rule out a draw either. England have the Czechia return at Wembley on 6 October, three days later, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see a few changes from the side that won in Prague.

Kane scored twice against Croatia in Dallas and has found the net in both Nations League games, so he’s my pick if you want an anytime scorer on the side.

Bottom line, I’m going 2-1 England.

England to Win and Both Teams to Score @ $3.75

Both teams scored in six straight England games before Prague.

Croatia found the net twice against England in Dallas in June, and they scored in Seville on a night when Spain were miles better. They also let in four there, and England’s front four is in good nick.

My main fear is a repeat of 2018, when neither side scored at this ground. I think England’s attack has too many options now for that.

At $3.75, I’m comfortable backing this on the top betting websites in New Zealand.