France vs Turkey Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

France need just a point against Turkey to book a place in the UEFA Nations League quarter-finals, and they’ll have home advantage at Stade Atlantique in Bordeaux when it kicks off at 8:45am NZT on Monday.

That wasn’t the plan a week ago. Italy beat them 3-1 at San Siro on Thursday, handing Zinedine Zidane his first loss in charge, and France slipped to second in Group A1.

Turkey, on the other hand, have nothing left to play for. A 2-1 home defeat to Belgium on the same night sent them down to League B with a game to spare.

I’ve got a player bet in this France vs Turkey preview at $2.40, and it’s on a France attacker who hasn’t let me down all campaign.

France

Gianluigi Donnarumma gifted France the lead in Milan, and they still lost 3-1.

I thought France were sharper for the first 25 minutes. Desire Doue found the side netting and Lucas Da Cunha flashed a half-volley just wide before Michael Olise pounced on Donnarumma’s loose pass. Later on, Bradley Barcola curled one onto the foot of the post, and Donnarumma tipped a Rayan Cherki strike onto the woodwork after the break.

But their defending was a mess. Malo Gusto had a miserable night and tripped Nicolo Cambiaghi for Italy’s first penalty, then Dayot Upamecano brought down Antonio Vergara for the second. Cambiaghi also had far too much space when he got to the byline and cut it back for Francesco Pio Esposito’s equaliser, which annoyed me more than either penalty.

Anyone weighing up France in the latest football sports betting markets should know $1.20 is short for a side that’s just let in three. I’d be tempted to give Gusto a rest, but I doubt Zidane has many right-backs to choose from.

Team News: Dembele, Saliba, Kone, Kounde, Tchouameni, Thuram, Lacroix, Akliouche and Lepaul are injured. Mbappe is a doubt with a hamstring problem, but Zidane wants him to play.

Predicted Lineup: Maignan; Gusto, Upamecano, Jacquet, Truffert; Da Cunha, Rabiot, Cherki; Olise, Mbappe, Doue.

Turkey

Turkey sacked Vincenzo Montella after four straight Nations League defeats, and Sergen Yalcin took over in October.

His first game was Thursday’s loss to Belgium in Izmir, and he only had two training sessions to prepare. Arda Guler put Turkey ahead with a free kick in the 20th minute, but Kevin De Bruyne and Charles De Ketelaere turned it around by the half-hour mark.

Yalcin didn’t dress it up afterwards. He said Turkey have been conceding easy goals for a long time, and he admitted a few of his players are back from injury without being fully fit. He picked Oguz Aydin at right-back to deal with Jeremy Doku, and Doku still got past him to set up the equaliser.

With relegation settled, I’ve got no idea what sort of effort Turkey bring to Bordeaux. Their $14 price will catch the eye of a few punters trying out the best new betting sites, but I’ll pass.

Team News: Yildiz is out after foot surgery. Akturkoglu isn’t in the squad. Celik is back from injury and could start after coming off the bench against Belgium.

Predicted Lineup: Cakir; Celik, Demiral, Kabak, Kadioglu; Yuksek, Kokcu; Akgun, Guler, Yilmaz; Unal.

• France beat Turkey 1-0 in Izmit on 25 September.
• France have scored once in four of their five group games.
• Turkey have scored in three of their last four games.
• Turkey have conceded 13 goals in five group games.
• Turkey went out of the 2026 World Cup in the group stage.

I backed France and over 2.5 goals in Izmit, and they won 1-0. Kylian Mbappe scored in the 54th minute, and that was it for the night.

Both sides had 12 shots in that game. Turkey weren’t outclassed, and they only went down to 10 men when Ugurcan Cakir handled outside his box in the 87th minute.

This should be more comfortable for France. Italy and Belgium play at the same time, so a point is all France need, and a relegated Turkey under a brand-new coach isn’t an opponent I’d fear.

But I can’t bring myself to back a clean sheet. France have conceded in each of their last three games, and Guler is more than capable of nicking one from a set piece.

I’ve got France winning 2-1. BTTS Yes at $1.93 is a decent shout for anyone using betting promotions this weekend who doesn’t fancy a short-priced favourite.

Michael Olise Anytime Goalscorer @ $2.40

Olise has scored in four of France’s five Nations League games this campaign, and he set up the winner in the one he didn’t score in.

His goals haven’t relied on anyone else much either. He scored the winner in Brussels on 28 September with a solo run, and he needed only Donnarumma’s mistake to score in Milan.

The risk is Zidane resting him with the quarter-finals in mind. I don’t see it happening while France still need the point.

At $2.40, I’m putting a bit more than usual on this one.