Serbia vs Germany Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Serbia host Germany in the UEFA Nations League at the Rajko Mitic Stadium in Belgrade on Saturday morning at 8:45am NZT, in front of a crowd of mostly schoolkids.

UEFA closed the ground to general fans after racist and discriminatory behaviour from Serbia supporters earlier in the campaign. Only under-15s with teachers or coaches can attend, and the Serbian federation is expecting around 5,000 of them.

Germany are three points off the top two with two games left, so they need the win. Anything less guarantees Serbia finish bottom of Group A2.

In this Serbia vs Germany preview, my pick for the bet of the week pairs a Germany win with a goals line at around $2.75. Those after free sports bet promotions will find plenty of Nations League markets this week.

Serbia

Aleksandar Mitrovic is back in the squad for the first time since March, and Serbia need him.

He’s their all-time leading scorer with 64 goals. Veljko Paunovic said he’d wait to see how Mitrovic feels after arriving in camp before deciding how much to ask of him, which doesn’t fill me with confidence.

Without him, their attack has managed three goals in four group games. Mihajlo Cvetkovic scored the one in Eindhoven on 4 October. Andrija Zivkovic struck inside four minutes against Greece in Belgrade on 24 September, but Greece came back to win 2-1 with a goal five minutes into stoppage time.

Six straight defeats is a poor run for a side with this much experience. Serbia had six players aged 30 or older in the XI that lost 2-0 in Munich, and they spent most of that night defending deep.

They’ve conceded twice in all four group games, and I can’t see a crowd of schoolkids changing that.

Team News: Maksimovic and Lukic are suspended. Tadic is injured, and Vlahovic has withdrawn for personal reasons.

Predicted Lineup: V. Milinkovic-Savic; Simic, Milenkovic, Pavlovic, Terzic; Zivkovic, S. Milinkovic-Savic, Stankovic, Kostic; Jovic, Mitrovic.

Germany

Klopp has cut his squad from 44 players to 24 for this window, which suggests he’s closer to settling on a first-choice group.

Goals have been the problem so far. Germany have managed three in four games, and none of those matches has had more than two goals.

Greece beat them 1-0 in Augsburg on 27 September through a Dimitrios Kourbelis goal on 74 minutes, even though Germany had most of the ball. A 0-0 in Greece followed on 4 October.

Their best night was the 2-0 win over Serbia on 1 October, when Klopp picked a completely different starting XI and it was still comfortable. Tom Bischof scored in the 39th minute, and Florian Wirtz added a second just after the hour.

I’m curious to see where Niclas Fullkrug fits in. He has nine goals in eight Bundesliga games on loan at Werder Bremen, and those keen on new betting sites might find a decent anytime scorer price on him if he starts ahead of Kai Havertz.

Team News: Anton has pulled out with a muscle problem, and Baku has been called up in his place.

Predicted Lineup: ter Stegen; Kimmich, Tah, Schlotterbeck, Mittelstadt; Pavlovic, Bischof; Karl, Wirtz, El Mala; Havertz.

• Serbia have lost their last six matches.
• Germany have won two of their four meetings with Serbia.
• Serbia have conceded two goals in each of their four group games.
• Under 2.5 goals has come in for all four of Germany’s Nations League games.
• Germany haven’t conceded in their last two games.

I’m tipping Germany to win 2-0.

I wouldn’t back them at $1.21 as a single bet, mind you. But Serbia have lost seven of their eight games this year, including a 3-0 defeat to Cape Verde in May. Germany were also much the better side in Munich.

Mitrovic is a concern if he’s fit enough for an hour. Serbia have scored in three of their four group games, and if Germany are only 1-0 up with 15 minutes left, I could see them nicking one.

Wirtz is the difference for me. He’s the type to find gaps against a deep, ageing defence, and Serbia are short in midfield with two players suspended.

If you’d rather see how Mitrovic moves before committing, the best live betting sites will have in-play markets from kickoff.

Germany to Win & Under 2.5 Goals @ $2.75

A 1-0 or 2-0 Germany win is all this needs.

Those are the two scores I see as most likely, and Germany’s results under Klopp back that up. Their four group games finished 1-1, 1-0, 2-0 and 0-0, and they’ve scored twice in a game only once.

Serbia have leaked two goals a game in this group, so a 3-0 is the obvious danger. But I haven’t seen this Germany side run up a score yet, and they’ve shut out their last two opponents.

It’s available at around $2.75, and I’m on it.