Netherlands vs Greece Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Greece head to the Johan Cruijff ArenA to face the Netherlands in the UEFA Nations League on Saturday morning at 8:45am NZT.

Both sides have eight points at the top of League A Group 2. Greece came within a minute of beating the Dutch in Thessaloniki on 1 October before Tijjani Reijnders struck an 89th-minute equaliser, and they’re yet to lose in their first League A campaign.

In this Netherlands vs Greece preview, I’ll get into why I trust the Dutch attack a lot more than their defence. I’ve also found a combination bet just under $3 for those keen to bet on football this weekend.

Netherlands

Four games into the Xavi Hernandez era, the Netherlands have scored in every one of them and conceded in every one as well.

Their attack has plenty of options. Mexx Meerdink scored both goals in the 2-1 win in Belgrade on 27 September. Teun Koopmeiners got one in the 2-1 win over Serbia at Philips Stadion a week later, despite playing in defence that night.

I’m less sure about their defending. Greece were 2-0 up at half-time in Thessaloniki, and the second goal came after Fotis Ioannidis intercepted a blind back pass from Ruben van Bommel and squared for Giorgos Masouras.

Frenkie de Jong’s return helps. He’s back for the first time since getting injured at the World Cup, and Xavi has pointed out that he used him at centre-back at Barcelona. I’d rather see him in midfield next to Joey Veerman, where he can get Cody Gakpo and Donyell Malen on the ball early.

Team News: Van Dijk and Brobbey have withdrawn unfit, and Ake, Hato, Gravenberch and Frimpong are injured.

Predicted Lineup: Verbruggen; Dumfries, Van Hecke, Van de Ven, Maatsen; De Jong, Veerman, Reijnders; Summerville, Malen, Gakpo.

Greece

Dimitrios Kourbelis scored the only goal when Greece won 1-0 in Germany on 27 September, and they shut Germany out again in a 0-0 at home on 4 October. They’ve let in three goals in four games, and both of the goals they conceded to the Dutch came after half-time.

I think they’ll defend deep again here. A point in Amsterdam would suit them with bottom side Serbia still to come at home, and Ioannidis admitted after the 2-2 that Greece didn’t respond when the Netherlands changed things at half-time.

Going forward, they’ve got options too. Vangelis Pavlidis set up Christos Tzolis for the equaliser in Belgrade on 24 September, and Anastasios Douvikas headed the stoppage-time winner from a Konstantinos Tsimikas cross.

Anyone with free bets to use this weekend could have a dabble on Greece at $6.50. I’m not touching it myself, though a Dutch side that’s let in five goals in four games gives them a chance.

Team News: Greece have no reported injuries. Bakasetas is back in the squad, and Koutsoupias has his first call-up.

Predicted Lineup: Tzolakis; Saliakas, Mavropanos, Retsos, Tsimikas; Karetsas, Kourbelis, Androutsos, Tzolis; Ioannidis, Pavlidis.

• Greece have won both of their away games in this campaign.
• The Netherlands won both Euro 2024 qualifiers against Greece without conceding.
• Greece’s last win over the Netherlands came in a September 2016 friendly.
• Serbia are the only side the Netherlands have beaten in this campaign.
• Greece have trailed in only one game this campaign.

Greece deserve to be level on points with the Netherlands, and I’m not about to talk them down.

But I’m taking the Dutch to win this one. Home advantage in Amsterdam counts for a lot, and the second half in Thessaloniki was the best they’ve played under Xavi. Denzel Dumfries also had two goals ruled out for offside after the break, so a Dutch win wasn’t far off.

My concern is the first 45 minutes. Greece outplayed them before half-time last month, and if they score first on Saturday, I’ll be sweating.

I was tempted by the draw at $4.40 for a while. With Germany away on Tuesday morning NZT, a point wouldn’t be a disaster for the Netherlands either, so I can see both sides settling for it late on. But I’ve stuck with the hosts still.

A 2-1 Netherlands win is my score prediction. Greece have only failed to score once in this campaign, in the 0-0 with Germany, and I can’t see a Dutch defence without its captain stopping them for 90 minutes.

Netherlands to Win & Both Teams to Score @ $2.85

I like this a lot more than the straight Dutch win at $1.45. Greece scored twice against the Netherlands last month, and Tzolis is fit again after limping off early in Thessaloniki.

At the other end, I’m happy relying on a home attack that’s scored seven goals in four games, with De Jong back to feed it.

I’ve backed it at $2.85, which is roughly what the best sports betting apps NZ are offering.