Portugal vs Denmark Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Portugal and Denmark meet in the UEFA Nations League at Estadio Municipal de Braga on Sunday morning at 8:45am NZT, in the holders’ first game since Cristiano Ronaldo called time on his international career.

Portugal are already through to the quarter-finals with four wins from four. Denmark are second on six points, three clear of Norway and Wales, so they need this more than their hosts do.

In this Portugal vs Denmark preview, I’ve paired the home win with a goals angle for a price around $2.40. Those with betting promotions this international window might want to save one for Sunday morning.

Portugal

Ronaldo’s last game for Portugal was the 1-0 win over Wales in Lisbon in September. He was an unused substitute in Oslo, then walked out of the camp on the eve of the Copenhagen game after Jorge Jesus told him he’d be on the bench again.

Goncalo Ramos has been the big winner from all of that. He’s scored in all three games since, and his winner against Norway in Porto on 4 October came from a Joao Felix pass.

Their midfield is where I think this game gets won. Vitinha headed his first Portugal goal from a Bruno Fernandes free-kick at Parken, and I expect those two to have the ball for long periods again.

Jesus has brought in seven players who weren’t in his last squad, and he’s talked openly about renewal since Ronaldo stepped away. A point still guarantees top spot, so I doubt he goes too far with it in Braga.

Team News: Cancelo and Conceicao are suspended. Mendes is injured, and Inacio has been left out.

Predicted Lineup: Costa; Dalot, Dias, Veiga, Tavares; Vitinha, Palhinha; Neto, Fernandes, Felix; Ramos.

Denmark

Rasmus Hojlund celebrated his equaliser at Parken with Ronaldo’s “Siu”, and I doubt the Braga crowd have forgotten it.

He’s scored in three of Denmark’s four Nations League games, including the penalty that won it in Cardiff on 4 October after Danny Ward gifted the ball to Gustav Isaksen and then brought him down.

Denmark have found the net in every game this campaign. Defending is another matter, with seven goals conceded in their two games against Norway and Portugal, and both of their clean sheets came against Wales.

Brian Riemer has only picked two out-and-out strikers, Hojlund and William Osula, so there’s not much cover up front if things go wrong. I’ve had Denmark’s price open on the sports betting apps all week, and $6.50 still doesn’t tempt me.

Team News: Christensen has pulled out. Dorgu was a late call-up, but Riemer says he hasn’t fully recovered from injury.

Predicted Lineup: Hermansen; Kristensen, Andersen, Provstgaard, Maehle; Hjulmand, Hojbjerg; Isaksen, Damsgaard, Skov Olsen; Hojlund.

• Portugal haven’t lost at home since a friendly against Croatia in June 2024.
• Portugal beat Denmark 5-2 after extra time in Lisbon in March 2025.
• Portugal have conceded in each of their last three games.
• Wales are the only side Denmark have beaten in this campaign.
• Felix has scored three goals in this season’s Nations League.

Denmark need points more than Portugal do, so that should open the game up.

Riemer can’t settle for a low block either. Norway and Wales play each other on the same night, and a draw in Braga plus a win for either of them would leave Denmark sweating on the final round.

That suits me fine as a goals backer. Portugal have scored at least twice in three of their four games, and nothing about Denmark’s defending in Copenhagen suggests that’s about to change.

I’m less sure about Portugal’s back line without their two first-choice full-backs. Denmark could easily nick a goal, maybe two if Damsgaard gets on the ball between the lines.

Jesus could throw me with his team sheet. If he starts Alberto Costa and Gustavo Varela on debut and leaves a couple of senior names on the bench, I’d expect Portugal to need longer to get going, but I’d still have them winning.

It’s an 8:45am kick-off on a Sunday, so at least nobody needs an alarm for this one. My scoreline is 3-1 to Portugal.

Portugal to Win and Over 2.5 Goals @ $2.40

I want a bet that doesn’t need Portugal to shut Denmark out, because I don’t think they will.

Portugal have won with three or more goals in the match in three of their four Nations League games, and the 4-2 at Parken on 1 October was the most open of the lot. Denmark need goals here, and Hojlund gives them a fair chance of getting one.

I’ll be on this at $2.40 with one of the football betting sites before the team sheets come out.