New Zealand vs India Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

India get a quick chance to respond to Thursday’s 5-0 defeat when they take on New Zealand in an international friendly at One New Zealand Stadium in Christchurch on Sunday at 4pm NZT.

No football international has been played at the new ground before, and a near sell-out crowd is expected.

This New Zealand vs India preview has a goals total paying a little over $2, and a consolation from India wouldn’t hurt it at all. It’s one of my football betting tips for the weekend.

New Zealand

Jesse Randall was the best player on the pitch in Auckland, and I’d start him again here without a second thought.

He scored twice in the first half against India on 12 November, taking his international tally to four, and that was after Vishal Kaith had already denied him twice.

Chris Wood headed in the fourth from a Callan Elliot cross. Lachlan Bayliss then volleyed in the fifth at his Auckland FC home ground for his first international goal.

My doubt is about how much changes for Christchurch. Darren Bazeley takes charge for the last time, and I’m expecting a fair bit of rotation after three Wellington Phoenix players got their debuts off the bench on Thursday. A new-look back four wouldn’t worry me against this India attack, but a new-look front three might cost them a goal or two.

Team News: Piper, Sheridan and Walker all made their debuts off the bench in Auckland and could start.

Predicted Lineup: Paulsen; Sheridan, Tuiloma, Boxall, De Vries; Garbett, Rufer, Bayliss; Randall, Wood, Piper.

India

I reckon India would have lost by eight in Auckland if Kaith hadn’t been in goal.

He saved Bill Tuiloma’s penalty in the 78th minute and then the rebound, on top of the stops he made from Randall in the first half. India’s problems were in front of him. New Zealand won the ball high up the pitch for the opener, and Pramveer Singh’s clearance in the scramble went in off Bijoy Varghese’s knee in the fifth minute. Mehtab Singh was one of the few to come out of it with credit, making some important blocks after coming on at half-time.

Khalid Jamil made five changes at half-time, and it didn’t do a lot for them. India still conceded twice more after the break, and I can’t find an India angle on New Zealand betting sites that tempts me.

They weren’t completely toothless. Ryan Williams crossed for Manvir Singh in the 19th minute, and only a block from Elliot inside the box stopped a goal. Alex Paulsen had very little else to deal with, apart from a Liston Colaco free-kick early in the second half and a long shot in the 88th minute.

Team News: Anwar is out injured. Apuia and Gurpreet aren’t in the squad.

Predicted Lineup: Kaith; Tekcham, Mehtab, Mishra, Gupta; Thapa, Hnamte; Jithin, Williams, Colaco; Manvir.

• New Zealand’s 5-0 win was their biggest over non-Oceania opposition since 1981.
• Over 3.5 goals has come in for each of India’s last three friendlies.
• New Zealand have scored in each of their last five matches.
• India have conceded 15 goals in their last three friendlies.
• India have conceded in each of their last four friendlies.

I’ve pencilled in 4-1 to New Zealand.

India’s defence won’t have improved much in three days, and Randall and Wood against that back line should be enough to win it comfortably. I’d also be surprised if Kaith had another night like Thursday.

Matt Garbett was excellent on his return as well. He won the ball high up the pitch to set up an early chance for Bayliss, and if India are as loose in their own half again, he’ll be waiting for them.

I do think India score this time. Williams and Colaco had a few decent moments in Auckland, and Jamil has little to lose by telling them to attack after a 5-0 loss.

BTTS Yes at $2.40 crossed my mind. But India have scored once in their last three friendlies, so I’d rather get at the goals through the total.

I can’t rule out a flat game either. End-of-year friendlies can fizzle once the first goal goes in, and a 2-0 would leave me well short. But I think New Zealand will want to give a new crowd in Christchurch more than that.

Over 3.5 Goals @ $2.20

New Zealand could easily have had seven in Auckland. Tuiloma’s penalty was saved, and Liam Gillion struck the crossbar off the bench before setting up Bayliss for the fifth.

A 4-0 is enough here, so India don’t need to score for this to pay. I’d still expect them to have more of a go after Thursday, and that should leave space at both ends.

$2.20 is the price I’ve taken on this through one of the best new betting sites.