Spain vs England Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Harry Kane leads England into the Riyadh Air Metropolitano to face Spain in the Nations League on Monday morning at 8:45am NZT, three days after breaking Peter Shilton’s England appearance record.

First place in Group A3 is up for grabs. Both sides are already through to the quarter-finals, but Spain only need a draw after Thursday’s 2-0 win in Prague, while England have to win in Madrid to finish above them.

My Spain vs England preview finishes with a goalscorer double at around $6. Spoiler alert: one half of it is the obvious name.

Spain

Alex Baena has turned into Spain’s go-to man when games get sticky.

He came off the bench at Wembley in September to score the equaliser and was involved in the winner. In Prague on Thursday, he scored the penalty that got Spain going, and it was his fifth goal for his country.

It wasn’t a pretty night. Spain needed VAR to spot a Lukas Ambros handball for that penalty. Czechia had their chances early in the second half, and Spain only settled after Ladislav Krejci was sent off around the 70th minute. Marc Pubill added a second in stoppage time.

A lot of their first-choice players started on the bench or weren’t there at all, and Pedri only came on with 14 minutes left. I’d expect a very different team on Monday.

Martin Zubimendi in the holding role is a weak spot for me. He’s playing in a protective mask after a knock to his nose at Arsenal, and if I were England, I’d want Jude Bellingham running at him as often as possible.

Team News: Rodri and Olmo are injured. Yamal missed Thursday’s game with a knee problem but is expected to be fit. Oyarzabal missed Prague with flu and is a doubt.

Predicted Lineup: Simon; Porro, Cubarsi, Huijsen, Cucurella; Zubimendi, Pedri, Fabian; Yamal, Torres, Baena.

England

England weren’t great against Croatia, but they got the job done.

Morgan Rogers put them ahead from Bellingham’s pass in the 24th minute, then Petar Sucic poked in an equaliser just before the hour. Kane won it from the spot after VAR picked up Ivan Smolcic pulling Jarell Quansah’s shirt.

That goal ended a run of three straight clean sheets. Dan Burn is 34 and started next to Quansah on Thursday, and I’m nervous about that pairing against a Spain attack that scored inside two minutes at Wembley.

Going forward, I’ve got no complaints. England have scored 16 goals in five group games, more than anyone else in Group A3, and anyone weighing up football sports betting on the goals markets should start there.

Team News: Guehi withdrew with a hip injury, and Saka and Rashford are injured. Konsa and Spence are expected to be available. Lewis-Skelly is back from suspension.

Predicted Lineup: Pickford; Alexander-Arnold, Quansah, Konsa, Hall; Rice, Anderson; Rogers, Bellingham, Gordon; Kane.

• England haven’t beaten Spain since October 2018.
• Spain have won seven of their last 10 meetings with England.
• Spain have never lost at the Metropolitano.
• Spain are unbeaten in 43 matches inside 90 minutes.
• England have three clean sheets from five group games.

Neither side has much reason to be cautious on Monday.

England need the win, and I doubt Spain will be happy to settle for a point in front of their own fans.

I can talk myself into England at $4.60. They beat Croatia 7-0 in Rijeka last month, and they’ve scored in every group game. But Spain have won all five of theirs, and Thursday’s scrappy effort came with a much-changed team.

If Ezri Konsa comes through Saturday’s training, England’s back line will be steadier for it. I still think Spain win 2-1, with England giving them a fright in the second half.

I’ll have the best punting app open early on Monday, mostly to see whether Yamal’s name is on the team sheet.

Harry Kane and Lamine Yamal Both to Score @ $6.00

Kane has scored in all five of England’s group games, and he’s on penalties.

He scored against Spain at Wembley as well, although he also struck the bar with a penalty that night. Spain have conceded in four of their five group games, so I’m happy he’ll get a chance or two.

Lamine Yamal is the riskier half. He missed Prague with a sore right knee, and this bet is in trouble if he doesn’t start. But Luis de la Fuente expects him to play, and he’s got four Nations League goals this campaign, including the one inside two minutes at Wembley after he stole the ball off Marc Guehi.

It’s around $6 for the pair, so I’ll only have a small stake on it. If you’ve picked up a bonus from one of the betting promotions this week, this is a good place to use it.