Liverpool vs Arsenal Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Liverpool welcome Premier League champions Arsenal to Anfield on Monday morning NZT, with kickoff at 5:30am.

Arsenal are second on 21 points, level with Manchester City at the top, while Liverpool are six points back in fourth. A home win would cut this gap in half though.

I didn’t expect to give Liverpool this much of a chance when I started this Liverpool vs Arsenal preview, but Arsenal’s injury list has changed my thinking. My best bet is in the match result market, and it’s priced north of $3.

It’s a market I’d recommend shopping around for, as a few of the new betting sites in NZ have sharp prices.

Liverpool

Liverpool’s home form is pretty underwhelming.

They’ve won one of their four league games at Anfield. Nottingham Forest and Fulham both left with a point, and Manchester City won 3-0 there on 11 October.

Yet I can see why the market isn’t writing them off. They haven’t lost since that City game, and they were 2-0 up inside 21 minutes against Brighton on 25 October. Pascal Gross put through his own net before Alexander Isak scored the second.

I’m curious to see how Ronald Araujo copes at right-back. He’s a centre-back by trade, and he tucks inside when Liverpool have the ball, so Bradley Barcola gets the right flank to himself. For anyone wanting to bet on football player markets here, I’d look at Barcola to have a shot on target before I’d touch Isak’s scorer price.

Florian Wirtz is the other question for me. He twisted his ankle against Brighton and only came off the bench in the League Cup win over Chelsea on 28 October, so I’m not sure he’s at full speed yet.

Team News: Szoboszlai, Frimpong, Bradley, Leoni and Ekitike are out. Munoz is a doubt.

Predicted Lineup: Alisson; Araujo, Jacquet, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Barcola, Wirtz, Gakpo; Isak.

Arsenal

Arsenal have conceded three goals in four away league games, and all of them came in one bad afternoon at Brighton.

They kept clean sheets in all three of their other away games, including 1-0 wins at Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest. Back at the Emirates, Gabriel and Ezri Konsa both scored in the 2-0 win over Everton on 24 October, and Konsa’s goal came from a corner, their first of the season.

I’m less sure about their attack. They’ve scored four goals in those four away games, and their wide options are thin enough that 18-year-old Ceadach O’Neill, who set up Viktor Gyokeres on his debut at Fleetwood, could be needed off the bench.

I wouldn’t read much into a rotated team losing that League Cup tie to a League Two side on 27 October, but it wasn’t a good look.

Team News: Saka and Saliba are out. Dowman is suspended. Calafiori, Rice, Madueke and Tzolis are doubts.

Predicted Lineup: Raya; Timber, Konsa, Gabriel, Hincapie; Rice, Zubimendi; Madueke, Odegaard, Eze; Gyokeres.

• Arsenal haven’t won a Premier League game at Anfield since September 2012.
• Liverpool beat Arsenal 1-0 at Anfield in August 2025.
• Arsenal have kept five clean sheets in eight league games.
• Liverpool have failed to score in two of their eight league games.
• Both teams have scored in just two of Arsenal’s eight league games.

Arsenal are the more complete team, and on a normal weekend I’d happily take $2.15 on the champions. But this isn’t a normal weekend for them. They’re patching up their defence and their wide areas at the same time, and Anfield is a rough place to try that.

Liverpool needed penalties to get past Chelsea, but they made seven changes for that tie, so I don’t see fatigue being much of a factor on Monday morning. My gut says they start quickly and Arsenal grow into it once the noise drops.

Under 2.5 goals at $2.10 was the other bet I considered. Arsenal’s league games have been low-scoring away from home, and I can’t see either side taking many risks with Champions League trips to come on Thursday morning NZT.

I’m going 1-1. I wouldn’t be shocked if Arsenal nicked it 1-0 from a set piece, but I can’t bring myself to back Liverpool at $3.20 with their home record what it is.

Draw @ $3.40

Three of Arsenal’s last four league visits to Anfield have finished level, and the 0-0 at the Emirates in January was hardly a classic either.

Liverpool have drawn three of their eight league games this season, while Arsenal haven’t drawn any. I’ll admit that second number gives me pause. But Arsenal’s away wins have all been tight, and a side this short on wide players isn’t likely to blow Liverpool away.

At $3.40, I’d rather take it before kickoff than wait for the price to shorten on live betting sites if it’s still level at half-time.