Man United vs Brighton Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Manchester United and Brighton meet at Old Trafford on Thursday morning New Zealand time in the third round of the Carabao Cup, three days after both teams were in Premier League action.

United are still stewing over a controversial derby defeat. Brighton put five past Coventry without breaking a sweat.

In this Man United vs Brighton preview, I look at how both clubs are tracking and where the value is for goals. I’ve got a pick at over $3.50 for those checking football betting tips this week.

Man United

Sunday’s derby undoubtedly left a sour taste in United’s mouth. They had 67 minutes against 10 men after Phil Foden was sent off for retaliating to a kick from Bruno Fernandes, and still couldn’t score. Erling Haaland’s 60th-minute goal was awarded by VAR despite what looked like an offside infringement in the passage of play, and Carrick was rightly furious afterwards.

I think rotation is coming here. Fulham away on Saturday and Atletico Madrid in the Champions League after the international break mean Carrick can’t run his first XI into the ground in a midweek cup game. Mason Mount looked reasonable in his 45 minutes against Sabah, and Carlos Baleba - signed from Brighton for £70m this summer - could finally get his debut if that ankle is right.

United’s home form is hard to pin down. 

Sabah were hammered 4-0 and Ipswich shipped five, but City came in and nicked it with 10 men. I’m not confident in their defence right now. Seven goals conceded from four Premier League games for a side with Champions League ambitions isn’t good enough.

Team News: Ugarte (ACL), de Ligt (back) and Heaton (hamstring) are long-term absentees. Amad is also out. Shaw is a doubt after being managed through recent weeks. Baleba faces a late fitness test.

Predicted Lineup: Lammens; Mazraoui, Maguire, Evans, Dorgu; Mount, Santos; Rashford, Fernandes, Mainoo; Sesko.

Brighton

Thirteen goals in four Premier League games. Brighton are the top scorers in the division and it’s flying under the radar.

Sunday’s 5-0 win at Coventry was comfortable once Taiwo Awoniyi was sent off in the 53rd minute, but they were already two up by then through Charalampos Kostoulas and Malick Yalcouye. Pascal Gross, Lewis Dunk and Yasin Ayari all piled in afterwards. Before that, they beat Aston Villa 4-0 at home and Tromso 4-0 in Conference League qualifying.

Their only loss came at Chelsea - a wild 4-3 defeat where they actually led at one point. They’ll score, but they can be got at too.

I expect Hurzeler to rotate too. Brighton’s Conference League league phase doesn’t start until October, so the schedule isn’t brutal yet, but he’ll want his squad fresh. Their depth is decent enough to cause problems with a changed side.

Team News: Mitoma is out until after the international break. Rutter returned to training after a minor setback and could feature. Yohanna is a doubt.

Predicted Lineup: Verbruggen; Lamptey, Vuskovic, Boscagli, De Cuyper; Wieffer, Ayari; Osman, Andres, Hinshelwood; Kostoulas.

• Man United and Brighton have never drawn in 18 Premier League meetings since 2017.
• Brighton won at Old Trafford in the FA Cup third round in January, beating United 2-1.
• Man United were eliminated by Grimsby Town in last season’s Carabao Cup.
• Both teams have scored in five of their last six competitive meetings.
• Brighton have scored 17 goals across their last five competitive fixtures.

I’m leaning towards United to get through, but I don’t feel great about it. Carrick needs a response after the derby and the Grimsby embarrassment from last year is fresh in everyone’s memory. He won’t take this lightly, even if there’s rotation.

Still, Brighton worry me. Hurzeler’s side are full of confidence and they’ve won at Old Trafford before - in the cup, in this same round, only eight months ago. Danny Welbeck and Brajan Gruda did the damage that day. I wouldn’t be shocked if this goes to penalties.

A 2-1 United win feels about right to me, but I’m not putting much on the result.

For me, the goals angle is where the value is. Both teams have been leaking, both score freely, and cup rotated sides are often more open. If you’re tracking this through betting apps in NZ, the over and BTTS markets look interesting.

Both Teams to Score @ $1.80

United have conceded in four of their last five competitive games. Brighton have scored in every fixture this season across all competitions.

Even with rotation, there’s attacking quality on both sides. Kostoulas has been in superb form for Brighton and I can see him causing problems against a changed defence. Sesko and Fernandes should have enough about them at the other end, regardless of what else Carrick changes.

At $1.80, I’m happy enough to back BTTS on most of the best online betting sites available in New Zealand.