Newcastle vs Bournemouth Prediction: Betting Tips & Odds

Newcastle United and Bournemouth meet at St James’ Park on Saturday night New Zealand time. Matthias Jaissle’s side are unbeaten through two games and Anthony Elanga can’t stop scoring. Marco Rose’s Bournemouth have a single point from two matches and a familiar problem - they can’t hold onto leads.

In this Newcastle vs Bournemouth preview, I look at both squads’ early-season form and where the value might be for punters. I’ve got a goals-market angle at decent value for those tracking football betting tips this week.

Newcastle

Elanga has scored in both league games.

I thought Newcastle would struggle. Isak left for Liverpool last September, and then Bruno Guimaraes and Anthony Gordon followed him out the door this summer. And in fairness, the 2-2 draw with Liverpool was chaotic. Newcastle had an xG of 1.43 from 13 shots, and Liverpool’s 90+9’ penalty from Dominik Szoboszlai denied them a deserved opening-day win.

The Spurs result was different though. Newcastle defended deep, countered with pace, and picked off Roberto De Zerbi’s side with clinical efficiency. Elanga finished a lovely move in the 62nd minute, and Yoane Wissa - their £55m signing from Brentford - doubled the lead 10 minutes later. Two shots on target, two goals, 0.75 xG. It was ruthless.

I like Jaissle’s approach so far. Newcastle aren’t trying to be what they were under Eddie Howe. They’re a counter-attacking team now, happy to concede possession and attack in transition. Whether that’s sustainable across a full season is another question, but early signs are encouraging.

Team News: Burn is out with ankle ligament damage. Joelinton remains sidelined with a groin issue. Livramento is training individually but not yet in full sessions. Osula is also unavailable.

Predicted Lineup: Hornicek; Dedic, Thiaw, Botman, Hall; Miley, Steur; Elanga, Gonzalez, Barnes; Wissa.

Bournemouth

Bournemouth should be on more than one point. I think most people watching their first two games would agree with that.

They led Man City 1-0 at the Etihad for 58 minutes before Marc Guehi’s header and Josko Gvardiol’s stoppage-time winner turned the game on its head. Then at home to Everton, Alex Scott’s excellent first-half goal had them cruising until James Tarkowski’s 91st-minute equaliser. Two games, two leads, zero wins.

I’m sympathetic, but it does tell you Bournemouth have an issue closing games out. Rose’s side need to learn how to manage the final 10 minutes of a match under their new coach, and doing that away at St James’ Park against a fired-up crowd won’t be easy.

For me, Bournemouth have enough attacking quality through Evanilson and Rayan to trouble anyone - they just can’t seem to protect an advantage.

Team News: Kroupi is out with a foot injury. Akinmboni and Dennis are long-term absentees. Rose has no new injury concerns.

Predicted Lineup: Petrovic; Smith, Hill, Silva, Truffert; Cook, Scott; Rayan, Kluivert, Tavernier; Evanilson.

• Newcastle haven’t beaten Bournemouth in any of their last eight Premier League meetings.
• Both teams scored in three of the last four Premier League meetings between these clubs.
• Bournemouth have conceded a 90th-minute goal or later in both of their opening two league games this season.
• Elanga is the first Newcastle player to score in the club’s opening two league games of a season since Alan Shearer in 2003-04.
• Newcastle conceded an xG of 2.73 against Liverpool on the opening weekend.

I’m going with Newcastle here. That head-to-head record of zero wins in eight Premier League meetings gives me pause, but I can look past it.

But this is a different Newcastle side under Jaissle. Elanga is in terrific form and Wissa looks like he belongs already. Their counter-attacking approach at Spurs was the best tactical performance I’ve seen from them in a while.

Bournemouth’s inability to close games out is a real concern for Rose, and St James’ Park won’t be a kind place to figure it out.

I’m tipping a 2-1 Newcastle win. Bournemouth will score - they have enough quality going forward - but I can see Newcastle getting the job done at home through pace on the counter. If you’re following this one through sports betting apps, the goals markets look like the way in.

Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals @ $3.40

BTTS has occurred in three of the last four Premier League meetings between these two at St James’ Park. Newcastle’s xG numbers against Liverpool suggest their defence can be exposed, and Bournemouth have scored in every game so far this season, including at the Etihad.

Newcastle will attack. They need to. Bournemouth won’t park up either - Rose wants his side on the front foot.

At $3.40, I think there’s value here for punters using the betting promotions on offer across New Zealand’s top sites.