Rugby Union Betting Tips For Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry 2026 - All Blacks vs Springboks 4th Test

It was another close game, but in the end, the Springboks got the better of the All Blacks and have cemented a 2-1 lead. The fourth and final game is upon us, and before all the action kicks off, check out our rugby union betting tips!

Well, wasn’t that a brutal game last time out? With injuries to key players on both sides, like Ardie Savea and Cheslin Kolbe. In the end, it was the Springboks who managed to just edge out the All Blacks, 29-24. Before we head to Baltimore for the fourth and final Test, the BettingTop10 team have gone through everything you should know!

Odds thanks to Betista (accurate at the time of publication).

All Blacks

The All Blacks are in must-win territory if they want to level the series. It was a close game in Johannesburg last time out, but even a last-gasp try couldn’t help them get over the line. While it was close in the end, there is still a lot that the All Blacks need to improve on.

We also see some major changes for the side, with the likes of Ardie Savea (shoulder), Quinn Tupaea (knee) and Luke Jacobson (elbow) all not playing due to injury. Codie Taylor takes over as the skipper, and Richie Mo’unga will play his first Test since 2023.

It’s important that the All Blacks look to avoid getting into another physical battle with the Springboks. That’s what happened throughout most of the game last time out, and it didn’t work well for them. The new-look All Blacks should try to play at a fast pace to try and upset the rhythm of the Springboks.

Springboks

Despite the close scoreline in the end, the Springboks performed very well last time out, and will be taking a lot of confidence into this clash. The Springboks shone more in key moments, and they just seemed more energetic throughout the entire game.

We won’t see as many changes as the All Blacks for the Springboks, as Rassie Erasmus looks set to make just two. One of which is Cheslin Kolbe, who is out after breaking his jaw. We’ll see Damian Willemse return from his hamstring injury, and Morne van den Berg is elevated from the bench.

The Springboks seem to have the winning formula now, so don’t expect game tactics to change. If they come into this one with the kind of energy they did last time out, they’ll be very hard to topple. Look for the Springboks forwards to again make life difficult for the All Blacks at the set piece and breakdown.

The Springboks come into the fourth and final clash with a 2-1 lead. This means that a win for the All Blacks is a must if they want to finish the series on level pegging. In the last five matches between these two sides, the Springboks hold a 3-2 lead.

Both squads have already left for the USA. This will be the sixth time the All Blacks have played in the USA, dating all the way back to 1913. The Springboks have played in the USA on three occasions, with the first being in 1981.

The most vital trends that you should be aware of leading into this match: 

• The Springboks have taken a greater lead in the world rugby rankings (men’s) with 94.33 points.
• In the last six Tests between these two sides, four of the games have been decided by seven points or less.
• The All Blacks have scored more points across the series despite trailing 1-2, outscoring the Springboks 83-78 through the opening three Tests.

Once again, the All Blacks covered the spread. I think the bookmakers are cottoning on to this, as we now see the spread line at +5.5 for the All Blacks, which is getting a bit skinny in my opinion. The All Blacks looked run-down last time out. Is all the travel getting to them?

Now, we’re heading from South Africa to the USA. More travel for an injury-ravaged All Blacks team. While there will be fresh faces in the team looking to make their mark, I think the Springboks have found the winning formula and will put the All Blacks to the sword in Baltimore.

Take the Springboks to cover the -5.5 spread @ $1.71.

Despite the close scoreline, I think the All Blacks played their worst game last time out. Now, with injuries to several players, the writing may already be on the wall. At least this time the game is on “neutral” ground, being played in Baltimore. 

The Springboks have worked out their tactics well and have a great blueprint to beat the All Blacks once again. The Springboks will stick with what they know and wrap up this series with a win. Before the final game, make sure you check out betting bonuses to help you get more value with your bets.